Now’s the time where roster depth takes center stage.
By round five, you likely have your top-tier running backs and wide receivers, so you either have to keep building upon those positions, or focus on tight end or quarterback. Check out rounds 1, 2, 3 and 4, to see who would be available earlier in fantasy football drafts.
The average draft positions are changing some, so we’ll avoid looking at players twice, and move them around accordingly.
According to average draft positions in a standard 12-team league, here’s the 12 players in order that will likely be taken in the fourth round:
49. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta
50. Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay
51. Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina
52. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota
53. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis
54. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans
55. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
56. Julian Edelman, WR, New England
57. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle
58. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh
59. Golden Tate, WR, Detroit
60. LeGarrett Blount, RB, Philadelphia
Best Bet
Ty Montgomery — His stock keeps rising, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he won’t be available in the fifth round by draft day. There’s a reason this major sleeper is seeing his ADP rising. He’s going to start and be a three-down running back for a Green Bay offense that will score plenty of points. He can catch out of the backfield and he’s bulked up in the offseason, meaning he may not lose out on goal line work. He had to take over as a running back for the Packers last season out of necessity, so he’s still young in his development. All signs point to him to continue to improve, so he’s a no-brainer to put on your team. He’s ranked as the 20th running back according to ADP, and he has the ceiling that could be in the discussion as a regular RB1.
Who’s next?
Greg Olsen — There are some interesting choices in this round, but if I’m looking for a more conservative pick, who will be toward the top of his position rank, Olsen is the clear pick. He’s going to attract plenty of targets. Since 2012, he’s been targeted more than 100 times in each season, and has started each game. He’s durable, and generally scores touchdowns. Last year was a down year for everybody in Carolina, but Olsen still had 80 receptions and more than 1,000 yards. His biggest knock was the limited touchdowns, with only three, the lowest output since his rookie season. Olsen is a safe pick at tight end who will be a top-five option.
Here come the quarterbacks
It makes sense that quarterbacks would start rushing off the draft board in the fifth round. Most rosters have their main pieces, and this round offers an opportunity to pick up a big name at the quarterback position. I’m still waiting on quarterback in my draft, but if you must, there are winners and losers in this round. Of the three in this round, I’m skipping Ryan, and banking on Luck to have a much better season this year. If I could grab Luck in the sixth round, I’d probably pull the trigger. That could be an option, especially if some of your league members shy away from him because of injury. Luck will see the field this season and he should be back to his former self. He’s going to throw some interceptions, but he has enough volume and ability to throw touchdowns, he’ll more than make up for that weakness.
After Luck, I’m going with Wilson, who also should bounce back this season. He’s a bit of a tough person to trust, especially if he keeps trying to stay in the pocket. But I just don’t trust Ryan, who was basically off the fantasy map in previous years before having last year’s breakthrough campaign. I don’t buy Ryan’s resurgence, so I’m skipping him altogether.
Cook offers some upside
I’m nervous about Cook, but once again, among these other running backs, Cook has the biggest upside. Blount was a beast last year, thanks to scoring touchdowns. He wasn’t elite at yardage, so you can’t trust him this year to produce at the same clip. Blount doesn’t do anything for me because his volume just won’t be good enough. He’s a touchdown-dependent option, who can’t be a plug and play option every week. Ingram is in the same boat, albeit in a different way. Ingram was a volume-heavy running back who just didn’t score touchdowns. Now, Adrian Peterson is in town, making it confusing on what roles both running backs will play. Cook has a similar problem with too many options in the backfield, but Cook is an emerging player who by the end of the year should be getting the majority of carries. He’s a rookie, so there’s the unknown, but if he’s your Flex, he could produce in a solid way. I don’t like any of these options as RB2 backs, so be wise when drafting earlier in the draft.
Who else?
I’m not making the same mistake with Tate this season. He’s not really a touchdown option and while he came on late last season, he was a complete dud earlier in the season. Edelman is in the same boat as Tate. He’s going to attract some targets, but won’t score touchdowns. That will be even worse this season with Brandin Cooks as another option at wide receiver. If one of those players is your WR2, then I hope your other positions are elite. I’d be targeting Bryant or Graham. Both players are going to get solid red zone work, putting them in positions to score touchdowns. The targets won’t be the same as Edelman or Tate, but the final production will likely be higher. Bryant is on one of the top offenses in the NFL, while Graham is the main target for the Seahawks inside the 20-yard-line. They have some warts, but they offer more upside than the other two players.
