The running back position may be the hardest to predict early in the season. Coaches are tight-lipped about their gameplans for the coming week and without any prior weeks to sift through coach-speak and actual game action, it’s difficult to decipher which running backs will see much time.
If you have some depth to your running back group, it may be in your best interest to mix and match based on matchups.
With that in mind, here’s the start ’em, sit ’em for week 1 guide for running backs.
Start
Latavius Murray vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m high on the Raiders this week.
The Saints’ defense didn’t only save its awfulness for opposing quarterbacks. It also allowed teams to run all over them to the tune of the second-worst rush defense in 2015.
That should allow Murray to have a field day after the Raiders build a lead on the Saints in the early going. Murray is running behind a better offensive line and the Raiders should enjoy more opportunities to run the ball with more leads.
I’m not worrying about Oakland struggling on the road in the early going. I’m predicting that a young team from last year will only grow up more in 2016, allowing Murray to be a surprise fantasy option this season. He has a solid opportunity to be in the RB1 conversation this week against the porous Saints rush defense.
Spencer Ware vs. San Diego Chargers
Fantasy owners who drafted Ware or picked him up off the waiver wire were greeted with unexpected news this week that he will likely get the main duties for the Chiefs this week.
He’s the likely starter and even if Charcandrick West can mix in a few carries for the Chiefs in Jamaal Charles’ place, it appears that Ware will get the lion’s share of the work against the Chargers.
That’s important, especially with the Chiefs’ approach to running first and throwing second. The matchup proves to be beneficial, too, as San Diego is on the road and was a bottom-10 defense against the rush last season.
Teams averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year against San Diego, the second-highest number in the NFL. Ware won’t be an option for long, but he’s a must start in week 1.
Ryan Mathews vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m definitely not all in on Philadelphia. But against the Browns’ rush defense, I’ll take my chances.
Mathews is a difficult option for fantasy owners. He doesn’t contribute in the passing game and doesn’t stay healthy.
However, he’ll get the early down work against the Browns, which could pay major dividends. And in this game, it doesn’t appear likely that the Eagles will fall down big, forcing more passing. That should help Mathews get more action, especially with the confusion now at the quarterback position for the Eagles.
Cleveland was third-worst against the run last season. Expect more of the same this season and Mathews should generate enough production to fit into at least an RB2 role in week 1.
Sit
Jonathan Stewart vs. Denver Broncos
I’m not giving up on quarterback Cam Newton against the best defense in the NFL. I am, however, giving up on the team’s running back.
Stewart must try to find some space against a defense that allowed less than 90 yards per game on the ground last season. That likely won’t happen, making him a liability as even your Flex option.
Last season, Stewart managed just 29 yards against the Broncos in the Super Bowl. He may be able to find more space than that, but it won’t be by much.
Stewart is likely an RB2 for your team. He may fit that role during this season. However, in this week, he won’t be worth a start.
C.J. Anderson vs. Carolina Panthers
I’m not too fond of my running back options in the first game of the NFL season.
There’s something that concerns me with Anderson’s early season difficulties. He’s been ineffective for two consecutive years in the early going, only to catch steam later in the year. It’s becoming a trend that I don’t like as a fantasy owner.
And it doesn’t help that he drew Carolina’s number in week 1. The Panthers were a top-10 defense last season against the run and that likely won’t stop this season.
While I believe the Broncos will focus squarely on the run this season, it might hurt that the quarterback option is in the bottom-five for NFL teams this season. Anderson will have to run through eight-man boxes continuously. That’s a difficult task on a week-to-week basis.
Avoid the running backs like the plague in the year’s opening game.
Arian Foster vs. Seattle Seahawks
Foster is getting some love in the fantasy football world. If he can return to full strength that might prove correct this season.
However, my biggest issue is that the Dolphins refuse to run the ball, instead focusing on Ryan Tannehill for some unknown reason. That will backfire in a big way, especially when Seattle takes an early lead, forcing the Dolphins to keep focusing on the pass.
Seattle is one of the best against the run, anyway, and that won’t stop this year, either. Foster isn’t the same running back he once was. And even if he comes close to his old self, we won’t see any flashes of brilliance this week against a stout Seahawks front seven.
