Ezekiel Elliott is making the transition from college to pro look easy.
He dominated once again in week 10, going for 38.90 points, 11 more points than the second-best fantasy option among running backs. He’s been pretty much unstoppable this season, going for double-digit fantasy points in each game this season. 10
His weekly output is astonishing. He’s going to be near 100 yards rushing each week and likely haul in multiple passes out of the backfield. And he’s been better in the touchdown department in recent weeks, with five total touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Fantasy owners don’t need to contemplate starting Elliott. However, week 11 will pose a major challenge as Baltimore brings the best rushing defense to Dallas. Elliott is an equal opportunity running back in terms of fantasy points, but the Cowboys have done some major work against bad rushing defenses. Dallas has squared off against four bottom-10 rushing defenses and dominated.
They’ve faced only two top-10 rushing defenses, with the Giants holding Elliott to his lowest yardage total at 51 during the first game of the season.
He’s going to do work, but it might not be to the level that we’ve expected in recent weeks. Fantasy owners may need to generate production from the start ’em, sit ’em week 11 running backs guide.
Start
LeGarrette Blount vs. San Francisco 49ers
Blount scares me to death as a fantasy owner.
You never know what Bill Belichick is going to do and Blount has been underwhelming in the yards per carry statline to say the least. He averages only 3.7 yards per carry, but has the most touchdowns by a running back in the NFL.
That’s not sustainable, but he’s worth starting in week 11 against a terrible San Francisco rush defense. I know San Francisco held Arizona’s David Johnson to less than 3 yards per carry in week 10. But I can’t forget the evidence that has piled up throughout the weeks regarding San Francisco’s rush defense.
San Francisco allows more than 5 yards per rush attempt and 180 yards rushing per game. That’s more than 40 yards worse than any other team in the NFL.
Blount isn’t going to be a high-volume guy for your team, but San Francisco can give up fantasy points to running backs better than any team in the NFL. Blount is a must-play in week 11.
James Starks vs. Washington Redskins
This play is more about what I anticipate Green Bay to do in week 11. That offense is dysfunctional…and that’s being nice. The Packers pass too much. Even when they’re ahead, they’re focusing too much on the pass.
It’s time to start focusing on the run and I believe the coaching staff won’t abandon that aspect of the game so quickly against Washington.
Washington is a pretty good team. They’re not great. But they’re definitely not bad. One thing they don’t do well, though, is stop the run.
The Redskins are a bottom-10 rush defense, despite facing less rush attempts per game than 16 other teams in the NFL. Teams are attempting only 25 rushes per game against Washington, but are averaging 4.6 yards per carry, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
That covers fantasy owners on both ends. If Green Bay doesn’t run much, Washington’s defense has shown the inability to stop the big play. But if Green Bay wises up and runs more, then Starks will be a high-volume running back.
He’s a three-down running back with little competition for playing time. He’s a high-upside RB2.
Doug Martin vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are generally known for their defensive abilities, but their rushing defense should get a second look.
Kansas City allows the second-most yards per carry in the NFL and gives up 121 yards per game on the ground, the sixth-highest total in the NFL. In fact, week 6 was the last time Kansas City held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing.
So that once stingy rush defense always employed by Kansas City is gone for 2016. It hasn’t affected the record, but it’s something to take note when thinking about Martin.
He got off to a slow start in week 10 after returning from injury. That’s OK, especially since Chicago is a top-half rushing defense. The Buccaneers will run the ball against pretty much any opponent, so week 11 shouldn’t be any different. Martin should have a good day, allowing fantasy owners to expect at least RB2 production.
Sit
Mark Ingram vs. Carolina Panthers
The trust factor is a major hurdle for Ingram to overcome. And against Carolina’s top-five rushing defense, I don’t trust Ingram to do anything in terms of fantasy in week 11.
If you don’t have a bench, then obviously you can’t sit Ingram. However, if you have some fringe players, like Isaiah Crowell or Jeremy Langford, I would consider them before Ingram in week 11.
Ingram had another inconsistent outing in week 10 against a Denver defense not stopping the run as well as in the past. He managed 50 yards on the ground with no touchdowns. That gives him less than 75 yards rushing in five of the previous six games.
He’s not gaining enough yards and not punching the ball into the endzone either with only three touchdowns since week 6. Carolina stopped Ingram in the first outing and I expect Drew Brees to do plenty of passing in week 11.
That limits Ingram’s ability to score fantasy points.
Vikings running backs vs. Arizona Cardinals
If you’re still starting a Minnesota running back, then I’m assuming your fantasy team is en route to ending the season before the playoffs begin.
Matt Asiata is the likely option, but his production is untrustworthy. He basically only scores points if he tallies a touchdown. And he’s only done that once in the last four games.
Ronnie Hillman and Jerick McKinnon also are getting looks, meaning that backfield is full and unproductive.
Not one of those options are even hot-hand worthy. The offensive line is in shambles and Arizona brings a solid defense into Minnesota for week 11.
I expect Minnesota to try to air it out against Arizona, based on having nothing to show for in the running game. Even if you’re getting starter’s work from Asiata or McKinnon, it’s time to drop them to the waiver wire.
Terrance West vs. Dallas Cowboys
West has a lot going against him in week 11. Dallas is one of the best rushing defense in the NFL, ranking in the top-five in yards allowed. The Cowboys also aren’t very good against the pass, meaning the Ravens’ high-volume passing attack will likely be in high gear.
And West is being challenged by Kenneth Dixon for touches.
Those items are enough reason to keep West on your bench in week 11.
At one point this season, it looked as if West could be a solid RB2 option on a weekly basis. He rushed for at least 87 yards in three consecutive games and was the clear frontrunner at getting carries. However, he started to regress, leaving the door open for Dixon, who is cutting into those touches on a weekly basis.
West is still leading the clubhouse in touches, but was rather inefficient with his workload in week 10. I expect those touches to keep trending toward Dixon and that could be a problem in week 11 against a good Dallas defense.
