I really don’t think there will be much debate about next year’s top fantasy player.
The top two options will likely be either Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson. However, for my money, it will be Johnson by a decent margin. He can do it every way. And his production is happening on a team that doesn’t have much going for itself on offense.
The Cardinals are down this year, but Johnson keeps going. He doesn’t have the best offensive line in the NFL, but he still has 30 more fantasy points than Elliott. Johnson only has one more year of experience in the NFL, so he’s still young, too, but I see more potential for points in fantasy.
His ability to catch the football out of the backfield is one of the best in the NFL, and I can’t ignore the fact he’s doing this on a team with a far inferior offensive line than Elliott’s. He was once again a top-two option in week 13, and against Miami this week, he’ll be another sure-fire fantasy bet.
For the rest of the starts and sits, here’s the week 14 running backs start ’em, sit ’em list.
Start
Lamar Miller vs. Indianapolis Colts
If Miller’s OK to play, then he should get the start. In fact, even if he’s not, you should grab Alfred Blue off the waiver wire and put him in the starting lineup.
Forget about Monday night’s beatdown of the Jets. That was open season for a blowout and I expected the Colts to play better than they’ve shown this season.
The week 14 matchup is of far more consequence and I expect the Texans to do well running the football. Even with a below-average offensive line, Bill O’Brien still runs the football. Houston ranks seventh in rushing attempts per game and that’s with a few blowouts sprinkled in during this season.
Miller has been highly disappointing, especially since I had him as a first-round fantasy grade going into the season, but it hasn’t been because of a small amount of volume. Miller ranks seventh among running backs in attempts per game and that includes recent weeks where he’s been in and out of games with injuries.
He has some bumps and bruises, but if he’s a go, he should get plenty of volume to run on the Colts’ bottom-10 rushing defense.
Latavius Murray vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Finally, it appears Jack Del Rio is noticing something that many of us already knew heading into this season. Murray needs more volume.
The Raiders have been notorious of leaving Murray out in the cold when deciding who to give the ball to in the backfield. Murray has regularly been the main man, but he’s barely outouched his teammates.
In the last two weeks, though, he’s gone for 19 and 20 carries respectively, and has been the main receiver out of the backfield. He’s turned that volume into good production, going for 88 and 105 total yards and three touchdowns.
With the increased amount of carries comes an opportunity to start him this week against a Kansas City team not great at stopping the run. The Chiefs are a bottom-10 defense against the run and the Raiders’ offense would be wise to focus more on the run, to help set up the passing game.
Jeremy Hill vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m not a huge Hill fan in fantasy football, but I can’t pass him up against the Browns in week 14.
He had a terrible 1.4 yards per carry in week 13 against Philadelphia. Despite those putrid numbers, he still managed to carry the ball more than 20 times. Without Giovani Bernard in the lineup, I expect Hill to gobble up plenty of carries once again in week 14 against a Browns defense not able to stop the run.
Cleveland allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs and allows 140 yards per game on the ground, also the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Cincinnati is one of those teams that could give up or keep pressing on. I believe this game will tell us a lot about which option they take in December, and I’m expecting a big output from its offense.
Sit
LeGarrette Blount vs. Baltimore Ravens
I’m not putting my fantasy football championship at risk with Blount in my starting lineup. If I have options, I’m looking elsewhere.
Baltimore’s defense is the best in the NFL at stopping the run and Baltimore has played New England tougher than about anyone in the NFL in recent years. The Ravens can be passed on (no matter what Ryan Tannehill showed in week 13), so I anticipate the Patriots to go to the air against the Ravens.
And while we’re talking about Blount, it’s about time to realize that he’s not the best equipped to bust through Baltimore’s defense. Last week he gained 88 yards on 18 carries. One of those carries was a 44-yard touchdown run, meaning the remaining 17 carries, netted 44 yards, equaling 2.6 yards per carry.
That’s not good enough to get it done against Baltimore. He’s a touchdown machine, but I can’t assume that will continue each week. He’s gotten your team to this spot this season, but at some point, these numbers aren’t sustainable.
Jordan Howard vs. Detroit Lions
You know who is extremely underrated? Detroit’s defense.
They’ve quietly assembled a pretty good unit in recent weeks and that rush defense is really good. The last time Detroit allowed more than 39 yards rushing was week 8 against Houston when Miller ran for 56 yards against them.
The Lions have been lights out against opposing running backs, meaning Howard will likely find little room to maneuver in week 14. I know Howard has represented a top-12 running back in recent weeks, but during the playoffs, you can’t play it safe.
If you don’t have a better option, then you’ll have to go with Howard. But if there’s someone else on your bench, then I’d roll with the better matchup. The Bears won’t have much room to do anything against the Lions, so be careful in backing Howard in week 14.
Devontae Booker vs. Tennessee Titans
Denver’s offensive line isn’t very good, so Booker is hard to trust. He hasn’t eclipsed 3.5 yards per carry yet in the five games since C.J. Anderson was hurt.
That won’t get any better this week against Tennessee’s top-10 rush defense. The Broncos have an issue on offense, and if Booker can’t get it going, then the Broncos will have to look elsewhere.
Kapri Bibbs earned more carries in week 13, but was injured, allowing Booker to handle the rest.
He won’t have a long leash in week 14, meaning I won’t waste a starting spot on Booker if I can help it.
