This is why some fantasy owners risk a high fantasy football draft pick on Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay quarterback was a disappointment based on average draft position earlier this season, but in recent weeks, with fantasy football seasons in the balance, he’s delivered.
In the last four weeks, no quarterback in the NFL has more fantasy points than Rodgers. He has 95 fantasy points, three more than second-place quarterback Kirk Cousins, and 15 more than third-place quarterback Joe Flacco.
He’s back to his regular form of throwing multiple touchdowns per game without turning the ball over. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a major component of anyone’s fantasy team during the final stretch of the playoffs.
For the fantasy semifinal round, here’s the week 15 quarterbacks start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Russell Wilson vs. Los Angeles Rams
This game will feature plenty of discussion about how the Rams have been Seattle’s biggest competition during the Seahawks recent string of above-average seasons. While Los Angeles has been mired in mediocrity, it has played Seattle well during the last few seasons, regardless of the records.
So while many may dismiss Wilson this week based on that history, I’m not buying it. The Rams are a mess. Jeff Fisher is finally gone, but that doesn’t clear up the massive amount of problems in Los Angeles. The offense is middle-school worthy, according to running back Todd Gurley, and the defense hasn’t done anything in recent weeks.
And now the Rams must travel on a short week to Seattle. Excuse me while I dismiss the notion of a spark due to the firing.
Wilson was atrocious in week 14 against Green Bay. But before that horrible performance, he had four games of at least 15 fantasy points in the previous five games. Three of those efforts were more than 20.
Wilson also has been a different player at home. He’s gone for less than 14 points only once this season at home, while registering 14 or more points on the road only twice. The key to the NFL is realizing that no team is as good or bad as they were the previous week. The same can be said for players, too.
Carson Palmer vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m tempted to not give this endorsement, but the matchup is too much on the plus-side to ignore.
My biggest fear is that Arizona will give up with three weeks remaining. The season is over for the Cardinals and they’re not used to that feeling. Usually, the Cardinals are battling for playoff positioning. However, after the week 14 loss in Miami, the Cardinals are out of the playoff picture.
Motivation could be an issue. But I’ll give Palmer the benefit of the doubt, based on him being an experienced professional, much like many other Arizona players. And if Arizona tries, this game could get ugly.
New Orleans also saw its playoff hopes fade in week 14 with a road loss to Tampa Bay. Now it must travel once again on the road, going from east to west to face a Cardinals team that will put pressure on New Orleans’ bottom-dwelling defense. The Saints own the fourth-worst passing defense and give up 7.8 yards per completion, the second-highest number in the NFL. That plays into Palmer’s desire to push the ball down the field.
Andy Dalton vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
If your starter has a difficult matchup this week and Dalton is on your bench, then there’s a good chance he can deliver.
Dalton hasn’t been bad recently, even without A.J. Green in the lineup. He has five touchdowns compared to zero interceptions in the last three games. He has 280 or more passing yards in two of the last three games, and the Bengals are playing better than I anticipated lately, even though they’re on the outside looking in with the playoff picture.
What helps against Pittsburgh is that Dalton has had success in the past against Pittsburgh. He has six touchdowns in the last four full games he’s played against the Steelers. He also has more than 300 yards in two of those four games.
Pittsburgh also is a bottom-half pass defense that hasn’t been tested of late. In three of the last four games, the Steelers have faced Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler and Scott Tolzien. That’s not exactly a lineup of Hall-of-Famers.
They’ll be tested in this one and the Bengals should play pretty loose in this one, giving way to plenty of volume for Dalton.
Sit
Andrew Luck vs. Minnesota Vikings
Luck isn’t matchup-proof. That’s why he shouldn’t be drafted so high in fantasy football drafts.
And if you believe in risking your fantasy life with Luck against the Vikings, then good luck, because you’ll have to hope your Luck stays upright enough to push the ball down the field.
The week 14 game was about where I believed Luck would be against a better-than-advertised Houston defense. Luck and the Colts have been feasting on bad secondaries in recent weeks. Before week 14, Luck went against five consecutive teams that rank in the bottom-half of passing defenses. The only time he went below 18 fantasy points was at Green Bay in week 9.
This week won’t be like facing Tennessee’s second-worst pass defense. The Vikings rank third in passing defense and have the third-most sacks in the NFL this season. What’s even worse for Luck is that Minnesota is highly unlikely to build an early lead, not allowing Luck to gobble up garbage-time yards and touchdowns.
It’s tough to sit Luck, but if there’s other options on your roster, consider those before blindly starting a quarterback against a top-three defense.
Eli Manning vs. Detroit Lions
Manning is the fantasy quarterback you can’t trust. And there’s no way you can trust him at home against a Detroit team that is playing better every week on defense.
The Lions are slowly climbing the passing defense chart after a slow start to the season. They’re slowing down games on that end and with Matthew Stafford nursing an injury, I expect this game to feature less high-flying, and more defense.
Manning is now on a three-game streak of passing efforts of less than 200 yards passing. Even if that doesn’t extend to four, it wouldn’t be enough to start him against Detroit. The Lions will play well, meaning Manning won’t have much room to maneuver.
Joe Flacco vs. Philadelphia Eagles
For the first half of week 14 against New England, Flacco looked much like the Flacco we’ve seen this season. He was unable to push the ball down the field and couldn’t find the endzone.
Then, the Patriots started making mistakes, allowing Flacco to put up better numbers.
But despite the performance against New England, I can’t depend on him on a weekly basis. And while I’m down on Flacco, he’s actually been a top-tier fantasy quarterback in recent weeks. From weeks 10 to 13, Flacco threw for more than 290 yards in two of four games. He had nine touchdowns in those four games compared to four interceptions.
But that was fool’s gold.
He’s regularly a quarterback who completes a high volume of passes, but isn’t able to conjure up many points based on his inability to throw down the field. He will have similar problems against a Philadelphia defense that has done a decent job at limiting opposing quarterbacks from generating a high amount of fantasy points.
The Eagles rank 12th in fantasy points against quarterbacks. They should be able to have similar success against Flacco.
