It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone, but Marcus Mariota is cementing himself as a top-five fantasy football quarterback.
He’ll get plenty of attention this week after leading quarterbacks in fantasy points in week 10. But he’s been doing this for weeks.
He’s a touchdown magnet and he’s doing most of his damage through the air. That’s scary for the rest of the league. He has the ability to run the football, too, and this week’s matchup against Indianapolis is one of the top plays of the week in fantasy football.
He’s generated 19 or more points in five of the previous six games, and gone for 17 touchdowns compared to only five turnovers.
You can’t go wrong with Mariota at the moment. For those questionable plays, here’s the week 11 quarterbacks start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Kirk Cousins vs. Green Bay Packers
I don’t know why everyone rags on Cousins so much. I was wrong about him in week 10, thinking he would shrink against Minnesota’s relentless attempt to lower the opposition’s completion percentage.
Cousins was precise, completing 22 of 33 passes for 262 yards. He was even better in the second half and spread the ball around to seven different receivers. During the last four games, he’s gone for at least 17 fantasy points and hasn’t thrown for less than 260 yards.
Those are numbers worthy of being in your starting lineup in fantasy football. In week 11, he squares off against a struggling Green Bay team that just allowed Mariota to go crazy against them.
The Packers allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64 percent of their passes, which is right in Cousins’s wheelhouse. Green Bay doesn’t do anything special on defense and Cousins just continues his pursuit at being a low risk/high completion rate quarterback.
And in today’s NFL, that has value.
Alex Smith vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is for anyone on the bye-week blues.
You’ll need a fill-in for your starting lineup and Smith has a tasty matchup this week against Tampa Bay.
Forget about week 10 against Chicago. Once again, I was wrong about the Bears and Jay Cutler is worse than I thought. There were several opportunities in the early going, but the Bears eventually gave up, allowing Tampa Bay to record a blowout.
The Buccaneers defense isn’t that good. Tampa Bay still owns a bottom-half pass defense, allowing 8.1 yards per completion, the fourth-worst number in the NFL. They also have allowed 19 touchdown passes in nine games, the second-highest total among teams that have played only nine games.
That works in Smith’s favor. Smith isn’t going to go crazy with yards, but he can make up for that with a high-touchdown output. He struggled in week 10 against Carolina, but I’ll chalk that up to Carolina owning a better defense than advertised and rust built up with missing a week.
He’s a solid play for any owners seeking waiver wire relief for a bye-week quarterback.
Blake Bortles vs. Detroit Lions
Slowly, but surely, Bortles is putting up decent fantasy numbers. I believe they are not sustainable, but he’s not a horrible play in week 11 against Detroit.
He’s gone for at least 17 points in the last three weeks in fantasy. He’s putting up high-volume pass attempts thanks to Jacksonville being terrible. That’s a good sign against a Detroit team not known for stopping the pass.
Detroit has given up the most touchdown passes among teams that have played nine games and owns a 20:4 touchdown to interception ratio on the year. That’s pathetic.
Quarterbacks are registering QBRs of 112.4, also the highest number in the NFL and they’re passing for 260 yards per game. Detroit can score on the Jaguars, allowing Bortles to do what he does best — complete passes during garbage time.
Watch for a shootout in Detroit, with Bortles being the best option.
Sit
Brock Osweiler vs. Oakland Raiders
It’s tempting to go with a quarterback against Oakland, but don’t do it.
Osweiler is horrible. I’ve been saying this for weeks, but Houston has enough talent to beat the middle-to-lower tier NFL teams. What they needed was a quarterback who could beat the upper echelon and Osweiler isn’t close to that kind of quarterback.
He went for a sparkling 99 yards against a mediocre Jacksonville defense in week 10. He did garner two touchdowns, but he’s not being asked to do too much.
Without the volume, he’s not a good play against Oakland. Oakland is slowly becoming a better pass defense. They still rank in the bottom-five, but they’ve been better than most people think against the pass in the last month.
Since Philip Rivers went for 359 yards passing in week 5, the Raiders haven’t allowed more than 285 passing yards. Trevor Siemian had 283 in week 9, but that was mostly due to game flow.
The next-highest output was Bortles at 246, who also was doing most of his damage during garbage time. At one point this season, the Raiders were the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Things change, so don’t expect much from Osweiler.
Carson Palmer vs. Minnesota Vikings
I’m trying to detach myself from Minnesota’s bandwagon, so this has more to do with Palmer than the Vikings.
There’s something wrong with Arizona’s offense. I haven’t gotten much right lately, but I was all over this one from the beginning of the season. The Cardinals wouldn’t be the first team to suffer a major hangover from a blowout in the conference championship game.
I expected that to happen this season and it is happening.
Palmer is getting older and we just assumed he would be this high-volume, long-throwing solid fantasy play this season. That’s just not the case. He’s gone for more than 14 points only once since week 2. Let that sink in for a moment. But yet many people are still starting him based on his value at the beginning of the season.
There’s way better options and against Minnesota, on the road, I don’t see Palmer doing much. The Vikings still have an above-average passing defense, and Palmer’s road games have been atrocious this season, minus his garbage-time effort in week 8 against Carolina.
The Vikings’ offense is terrible, meaning Palmer won’t have an opportunity to generate solid garbage time numbers in week 11.
Joe Flacco vs. Dallas Cowboys
Welcome to the fantasy football season Joe Flacco. He finally turned in a good fantasy performance with almost 300 yards passing and three touchdowns in a week 10 win against Cleveland.
Baltimore’s high-volume passing game would make it appear that Flacco would be a solid fantasy option each week. However, he’s been more about the dink and dunk than the long ball.
That hinders his fantasy production.
And this week’s matchup doesn’t bode well for him.
It’s not that Dallas is great against the pass. The Cowboys actually rank in the bottom 12 in the NFL in pass defense and give up 15 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions.
But I just don’t trust Flacco against good teams. The Cowboys’ best weapon is a running game that eats up plenty of clock, meaning Flacco will be on the sidelines for the majority of this contest.
I expect this game to be closer than many believe, too, meaning there won’t be that opportunity for garbage time. And even though we’re excited about Flacco’s week 10 performance, he still only has six touchdowns compared to seven interceptions since week 3.
That’s not good enough to make it in fantasy football. If you have a bye-week quarterback, find another player to fill out your roster.
