Thursday is shaping up to have a marquee quarterback matchup in fantasy football. And before you mark down Ben Roethlisberger against Andrew Luck as that matchup, think again.
Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott will square off Thursday afternoon, and they’ll likely put on another big passing display.
They ranked third and fourth, respectively, in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks in week 11, with Cousins going for 27.4 points, while Prescott went for 25.64 points.
That gives both players performances of more than 20 fantasy points in three of the last four games. Cousins has more than 300 yards passing in three of four games, while Prescott is doing his work with touchdowns, with 11 touchdowns in the past four games.
They’re must-starts going forward and are in the driver’s seat as being top-five fantasy quarterbacks this season.
Here’s the week 12 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks guide for fantasy football.
Start
Carson Palmer vs. Atlanta Falcons
Palmer hasn’t been very good this season and didn’t look great against Minnesota in week 11. However, he’s still a quarterback who can deliver against the right matchup, and week 12 should be ripe for the picking.
Palmer wasn’t terrible against Minnesota last week, despite some bad decisions. He threw an inexcusable pick-six while Arizona was going in to score, but he also made some decent passes against a stout Minnesota defense.
I wasn’t expecting greatness against Minnesota. He was held to a season-low in yardage, but I’ve come to expect that against the Vikings.
This week’s matchup against Atlanta should give Palmer a better opportunity to throw the ball down the field. Atlanta owns a bottom-three defense against the pass and is especially susceptible to the deep pass, an Arizona specialty.
The Falcons have allowed 35 plays of more than 20 yards through the air, the 10th-most in the NFL. Palmer isn’t an every-week start anymore, but he should get the nod in week 12.
Colin Kaepernick vs. Miami Dolphins
If you have a negative-quarterback matchup this week, consider Kaepernick as a possible start.
I had Alex Smith as my top fill-in last week off the waiver wire and he produced with the sixth-most fantasy points. This week, it’s Kaepernick’s turn.
Quietly, Kaepernick has put up some decent fantasy totals in recent weeks, going for at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. And two of those three weeks were against Arizona and New England.
He doesn’t do everything through the air, which should put pressure on Miami’s porous rush defense. The Dolphins rank in the top-half in passing defense, but are third-worst against the run.
The 49ers will put pressure on the rush defense and it’s likely going to be Kaepernick to be the top option.
Eli Manning vs. Cleveland Browns
Manning is tough to trust, but it’s impossible to pass up this matchup.
The Browns are terrible. I’m not sure if they can win a game, but if they’re ever going to get close, this might be the game. And that plays into Manning’s hands.
If New York jumps out to a major lead, they’re going to sit on it and run the football. But if Cleveland can keep up — and we’ve seen New York unable to break away from bad teams — then Manning may play a bigger role.
And if he’s in a bigger role, he’s shown in recent weeks to put up good fantasy numbers. He has at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games with nine touchdowns.
He still turns the ball over too much, but his touchdown total should continue to rise against Cleveland’s bottom-half pass defense.
Sit
Jameis Winston vs. Seattle Seahawks
I’ve seen this song and dance before from Winston.
He shows flashes of being a fantasy starter and then falls on his face. He’s been a quiet fantasy performer lately, generating 11 touchdowns in the last five games, with at least 17 fantasy points in each of those contests.
He’s being more consistent and he has back-to-back games in which he’s thrown 300 yards.
But now he’s facing a Seattle team that is starting to hit its stride. And against top-level pass defenses, Winston has been mostly absent. He has faced three top-10 pass defenses this season, and only one of those games featured more than 11 fantasy points.
His recent string of success has been against lower-tier defenses, with Chicago likely being the best defense he’s faced in the last five weeks.
Seattle will limit Winston’s ability to distribute the ball and I’m concerned with his ability to put up a large yardage total. I’m staying away from him in week 12.
Philip Rivers vs. Houston Texans
The last time we saw Rivers, he was throwing to the opposition at an alarming rate.
While some may consider that just a bad quarter, I believe there’s more to it. San Diego has been decimated by injuries to its skill position players this season. Rivers was obviously expecting his receivers to do another thing during many of those incompletions and interceptions, and they weren’t on the same page.
That will be disastrous against Houston.
The Texans employ a top-three pass defense, limiting opponents to less than 200 yards passing. They also limit opposing quarterbacks’ abilities to complete passes, allowing quarterbacks to generate a completion rate of 60.5 percent.
I’m fading Rivers at the moment, based on those injuries starting to affect his fantasy output.
Blake Bortles vs. Buffalo Bills
I had a weak moment last week in recommending Bortles as a starter. He did what he does best and disappointed, going for just 202 yards passing and two interceptions.
He finished with only 12 fantasy points, his third effort of less than 14 points in the last six games.
Jacksonville is starting to run the ball more and that means Bortles won’t have as much volume. And basically the only time he generates much in the fantasy category is behind garbage time efforts, which likely won’t happen against Buffalo in week 12.
The Bills are a much better team, but they generally don’t blow out the opposition. But Buffalo does bring with it a top-10 pass defense and shouldn’t have any trouble slowing down Bortles and the terrible Jacksonville offense.
