With the fantasy football playoffs now here, several quarterbacks, who have underachieved all season, made a statement in week 13.
Joe Flacco led all quarterbacks in points, thanks to Miami’s defense not showing up in Baltimore. Carson Palmer was second, once again thanks to facing a Washington defense not able to stop anything.
And Andy Dalton finished fourth, due to facing a fading Philadelphia Eagles team.
Matchups are still important, even if you try to ride the players that got you to this point. Pay attention to which quarterback gives you the best shot at winning, no matter how much of a disappointment they’ve been this season.
Here’s your first round of the playoffs week 14 quarterbacks start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Andy Dalton vs. Cleveland Browns
Dalton busted out in a big way against a Philadelphia team that needs the season to end now. The Eagles are playing much like who we thought they would be earlier in the season and Dalton exposed them for 332 yards passing and two touchdowns.
I know we all dismissed Dalton because of injuries to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, but he’s showing that he’s more than capable of picking up the slack. He has at least 280 passing yards in two straight games, and there’s no reason to doubt he’s capable of putting up big numbers again in week 14 against Cleveland.
The Browns have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season in the NFL. And when teams don’t run against them, the Browns are busy giving up 7.9 yards per completion, the second-most in the NFL.
Dalton hasn’t been great this season, but he’s catching fire at the right time. Use him at your disposal this week.
Jameis Winston vs. New Orleans Saints
I sold Winston’s stock in week 13 amid a depleted wide receiving corps. That was a mistake I won’t make in week 14.
New Orleans is atrocious on the defensive side of the football. Detroit did what I anticipated it would do and it moved the ball consistently against the Saints in week 13.
To think Tampa Bay won’t do the same thing would be a mistake. The Saints allow 276 yards per game through the air, the third-most in the NFL, and it’s not getting any better. Forget about Matthew Stafford in week 13. Jared Goff threw for three touchdowns in week 12. That should be enough evidence to realize that Winston should have a big day, regardless of who lines up at receiver.
This game should feature a decent amount of scoring anyway, so that works in Winston’s hands. He’s been quietly efficient in recent weeks, so that’s enough to trust him in week 14.
Colin Kaepernick vs. New York Jets
We’ll try this again with Kaepernick.
Week 13 was a disaster for the rejuvenated Kaepernick. It was snowing and cold, and we’ve seen him disappoint in those conditions before. Now he gets a reprieve with returning home to San Francisco against a team not known for stopping opposing quarterbacks.
Despite the all-time horrible performance in week 13, I’m not going to ignore the previous weeks’ evidence. He mustered at least 19 fantasy points in four consecutive weeks before week 13’s debacle.
That’s the quarterback I anticipate will suit up in week 14 against New York. The Jets own a bottom-half defense and we can’t forget about this road trip. New York is out of playoff contention and has to travel to the West Coast. They’ll be more interested in sun and beaches than playing a football game.
Sit
Marcus Mariota vs. Denver Broncos
Sometimes defenses are just too good to trust a quarterback. Mariota has been a fantasy surprise this season, consistently tallying 20 or more fantasy points.
But Denver’s defense is a different beast.
Quarterbacks average less than 13 fantasy points against Denver as they own the best statistical defense against opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
They have more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, and that’s where Mariota generally feasts on the competition. Mariota is tied for fourth in passing touchdowns with 25, but has been known to turn the ball over with eight interceptions this season.
You can find better quarterbacks with plus-matchups this week. Don’t tie your playoff future against Denver’s defense.
Carson Palmer vs. Miami Dolphins
The reemergence of Palmer will be well-documented this week leading up to the week 14 tilt against Miami.
Don’t buy into it.
Arizona has been tremendously terrible traveling in the early game window this season. In games at Buffalo, Minnesota and Atlanta, Palmer has seven interceptions compared to only four touchdowns.
In the only other game in which Arizona had to travel east in the early window, Palmer had a good output of 22 points against Carolina. However, that game was more about game flow with the Cardinals falling down early, allowing Palmer to play catch-up.
For many, he’ll be an easy start against a Miami defense that has been shredded lately by opposing quarterbacks. But I’m not buying into Palmer’s and the rest of the Cardinals’ ability to win games while traveling east.
That will show once again this week, with a better pass rush by Miami. In the NFL, you’re never as good or as bad as you looked the week before. That will prove true once again in week 14.
Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants
Forget about Minnesota and Denver. New York has been almost as tough as the best NFL defenses against opposing quarterbacks.
The Giants have allowed 13.32 points against fantasy quarterbacks this season, slightly above the Vikings at 13.27. And while Ben Roethlisberger threw for almost 300 yards, that was due to a big first half. The Giants defense held him check in the second half, allowing for New York to make a mini comeback.
New York has been tough on opposing quarterbacks all season and week 14 shouldn’t be any different. And I know the Dak train is full of bandwagoners, but he’s been pretty ordinary in recent weeks.
After a 300-yard effort in week 11 against Baltimore, he’s gone for less than 200 yards passing in the last two weeks. If he’s not generating touchdowns, his value goes down sharply.
It will be tough to find touchdowns against the Giants, so I’m backing away from Dak in week 14.
