Mark my words. Le’Veon Bell will be undervalued next season as a fantasy option.
The talk will circulate around David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and a few wide receivers. Bell shouldn’t be dismissed as a top-tier fantasy option, though.
What he did in week 14 is extraordinary, going for 47.80 fantasy points, far outdistancing any other player in week 14. When he’s healthy and not on suspension, he’s in the same stratosphere as Johnson. Both players are game-flow proof, meaning even when their respective team is down, they can score because they can catch the football.
Bell should continue to pile up points this season, but for those who aren’t in the playoffs, don’t discount Bell’s fantasy value in 2016.
Here’s the week 15 running backs start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Lamar Miller vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I had Miller pegged as more of a strong RB1 heading into the season, and he’s turned out to be mostly a high-end RB2. That’s disappointing based on his average draft position, but his volume this season should have fantasy owners bullish on his potential.
He turned in his second-best fantasy performance in week 14 against Indianapolis. It just so happens his best performance also was against the Colts earlier this season.
But don’t assume he’s just a one-trick pony. He will have plenty of volume once again in week 15 and should come through with some fantasy value. The Jaguars own a bottom-10 rush defense and have allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to running backs this season.
And while we can be disappointed with Miller’s overall season as a fantasy option, he still is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,010. He just hasn’t totaled touchdowns.
I’ll go with him again in week 15 as an RB1.
LeGarrette Blount vs. Denver Broncos
The consensus of pretty much everyone is that Denver’s defense is really good. And that may be true. But their rushing defense is not invincible.
DeMarco Murray proved that once again in week 14 and Blount should reap the same rewards in week 15.
I’ve been hard on Blount this season based on his high touchdown total inflating his fantasy total. But I’ll give him credit. He keeps putting up low-end RB1 numbers each week, making him a consistent RB1, despite being on a Patriots team that makes me nervous for all fantasy options other than the quarterback.
Blount went for 72 yards against Baltimore’s top-tier rushing defense in week 14, with a touchdown. That gives him 14 rushing touchdowns this season, the most by any running back in the NFL.
The Patriots will likely expose the Broncos’ rush defense in week 15, thanks to Denver owning a bottom-five rushing defense. It allows 127 yards per game and gives up 4.2 yards per rush.
New England is great at exposing the opposition’s weaknesses. This is a prime matchup for Blount.
Bilal Powell vs. Miami Dolphins
Starter Matt Forte is listed “day-to-day” with an injury. Excuse me while I doubt that is an accurate assessment of his chances to play Saturday.
The Jets are on a short week after Forte went down with an injury in week 14. Powell stepped in nicely against San Francisco’s atrocious rushing defense and should be the prime running back once again in week 15.
And when running backs receive volume against Miami, they deliver. The Dolphins own the third-worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 133 yards per game. They also allow 4.8 yards per carry.
The Dolphins also are being forced to travel on a short week after an emotional victory in week 14. This could be a letdown for the defense, allowing Powell to churn out consistent yardage.
He should be considered a low-end RB1 in week 15.
Sit
Philadelphia running backs vs. Baltimore Ravens
If you’re trusting an Eagles running back in week 15, then you’re in trouble.
Whether it’s Darren Sproles or Ryan Mathews, you should have some hesitation before putting them in your lineup. Both running backs share the ball, so the volume isn’t readily available.
And the Ravens are better than anyone against the run in the NFL. They allow only 3.4 yards per carry and allow 75 yards per game on the ground, eight yards less than the next-best rush defense.
I just can’t trust either running back at the moment, and I wouldn’t put my playoffs at stake with either one of them.
Spencer Ware vs. Tennessee Titans
This would be a tough sit, but if you have someone else on the bench…maybe a Kenneth Dixon, Kenneth Farrow or even T.J. Yeldon…I would give serious consideration with sitting Ware.
The Kansas City running back hasn’t really been that great in recent weeks anyway. He hasn’t topped 70 rushing since week 7 and he’s been in double-digits in fantasy scoring only once since that week.
I have major concerns for Ware’s involvement in the offense. He tallied plenty of rushes in week 14 against Oakland, but he was unable to get over the 3.0 yard-per-carry mark. The Chiefs are looking more like a passing team of late and that will likely continue against Tennessee.
The Titans own the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, but are third-best against the run. I expect another big volume day for Alex Smith, cutting into Ware’s fantasy production.
Isaiah Crowell vs. Buffalo Bills
Don’t take too much stock in Crowell’s performance from week 14. He only carried the ball 10 times, but went for 113 yards rushing.
Those numbers shouldn’t cloud your decision-making. This is still the same running back who failed to eclipse 50 yards rushing for five consecutive weeks. He also doesn’t catch the ball well out of the backfield consistently, especially with such a disaster at the quarterback position.
And before everyone salivates with the way the Bills played rush defense in week 14, please remember that it likely won’t last into week 15.
The Bills are a good enough of a defense to make adjustments and you can bet that will be hammered home this week. The Bills still have a shot at making the playoffs, so expect a far better defensive effort from Buffalo.
And don’t forget I regularly circle the wagons with the Bills when their backs are firmly planted against the wall. I expect a strong effort in week 15 with their playoff lives at stake.
