Much like last season, I’m not wasting a top-tier pick on a quarterback. There’s just not enough separation in the group.
I could have waited pretty much my entire draft last season to pick up Kirk Cousins, who finished eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy football scoring last year. His total was well off the pace of Cam Newton, who had an historic season, but it was 50 points less than second place Tom Brady during a 16-game season, averaging about a three-point difference per week.
And the difference between Cousins and Tyrod Taylor, who collected the 16th-most points, was 23, barely more than a one-point difference on a week-to-week basis.
There are similar averages among running backs and wide receivers, where there was an almost 60-point difference from second (Adrian Peterson) to eighth (Chris Ivory) in running backs, and a little more than a 50-point difference from second (Julio Jones) to eighth (A.J. Green) in wide receivers.
The reason why it’s far more important to grab running backs and wide receivers early in the draft is because those categories require more starters. Taking home two of the top eight running backs will render a bigger return on investment than picking a top-eight quarterback. The same goes with wide receivers.
For that reason, I’m waiting on quarterback again this season. Here’s my top sleepers among quarterbacks (minus Brock Osweiler, who was already mentioned in an earlier post as one of my favorite sleepers among all positions) for those who will employ the same strategy.
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Manning currently owns an average draft position of 11th among quarterbacks, according to Fantasy Pros, making him a solid bet to bring home better-than-expected results.
Other than 2012 and 2013, Manning has consistently been a top-10 fantasy football option, so he’s relatively safe. He will generally throw in a few awful performances, but those will average out by the end of the season.
What has me more excited for Manning’s prospects this season, though, is a change in head coach. A different voice was needed in New York and Manning can now be comfortable with Ben McAdoo, who has served as the Giants offensive coordinator.
Limiting turnovers will be the key, and he’s done a better job of that recently. He’s thrown 16 or fewer interceptions in four of the previous five seasons and has been at 30 or more touchdowns in the previous two years.
He’ll be a top-10 option again, and I believe he could challenge for a top-six position.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
This could completely backfire in my face. I know Romo is made of glass. Despite all the problems, though, he’s still played 15 or more games in four of the past five seasons, and totaled 30 or more touchdowns in three of the past five seasons.
If anything, he should be well-rested from last year, when he played in only four games and was on pace for his worst season yet.
The running game should be improved and the offensive line is the best in the NFL. And Romo has done it time and time again.
I’m getting solid value with him (likely based on his age and injury history), as experts have him ranked 12th among quarterbacks. He’s a proven starter and if he stays healthy, has plenty of upside.
Much like last season with Sam Bradford, if you take Romo, make sure to have a competent backup in place.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy football owners are not jumping on Taylor’s bandwagon after a solid campaign last year. As mentioned earlier, Taylor finished 16th among fantasy quarterbacks in scoring last year, but only a few points away from a top-10 finish.
And that came in limited action, as Taylor played in 14 games last season.
What is nice about Taylor is that he has help on offense with LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, so he doesn’t have to do everything. He does enough with his legs to make up for a lack of passing statistics.
Once again, though, injuries may be an issue for Taylor, along with a team approach focused more on defense and running, than passing. However, Taylor showed last year a solid ability to overcome those obstacles and give a good effort on a weekly basis for fantasy owners.
With an ADP of 19 among quarterbacks, Taylor can be a decent starter or a matchup-driven backup for fantasy owners.
