The running back position is scarce. That’s why it’s one of the most valuable and why you should pay attention to the matchups each week.
Unless you have one of only a few running backs that are plug and play options, those matchups can make the difference in who to start and who to sit. Here’s the week 1 start ’em, sit ’em guide for running backs.
Start
Jonathan Stewart vs. San Francisco 49ers
Usually it’s a good bet to pick anybody against the 49ers. But even picking Stewart takes some guts. He may not be a regular starter in your league based on his average draft position that hovered around 100. Despite his challenges this season, this is the perfect spot for Stewart.
He’s still listed as the starter and I doubt Christian McCaffrey will be the bell-cow running back needed to move the ball against the San Francisco defense. The Panthers need that downhill-style of running game against San Francisco and Stewart gives them that option.
San Francisco allowed 23 more yards per game on the ground than the next-worst defense in 2016. I don’t care how much they believe they’ve gotten better, it takes awhile to erase that from my memory. Stewart won’t last this season as a consistent fantasy option. However, in week 1, he’s a sneaky good play.
Ameer Abdullah vs. Arizona Cardinals
Abdullah loves to start off the season hot. He entered the league as a rookie in 2015, going for 94 total yards and a touchdown in week 1. He came back in 2016 in week 1, and went for 120 total yards and one touchdown. He was poised to be a dual threat out of the backfield in 2016, but succumbed to injury. He’s healthy and should be able to not only be the main runner for the Lions, but also contribute by catching the ball out of the backfield.
Arizona has a stingy defense up front, but I’m a little worried about the loss of Calais Campbell on the defensive line. Arizona will be unbelievable in the pass rush, but I’m not sure if they can stop the run as well as they have in the past.
Abdullah has shown us both times in his career to start out the regular season with solid fantasy production. I’m not doubting him in his third showing.
Dalvin Cook vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m a little tepid about Cook’s workload in the early going, but injuries to Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have accelerated Cook’s development.
Cook is going to get a chance as the main workhorse running back in week 1. And the way he looked in the preseason, he should have an opportunity to keep that role. The Vikings offensive line is better than last year and a matchup against the Saints suggests Minnesota will at least attempt to establish the run.
New Orleans was middle-of-the-pack against the run last season and while the defense may have improved slightly in the offseason, it’s mostly in the secondary. The defensive line should still have difficulties stopping the run, opening up lanes for Cook to make a good first impression. Cook gets a national spotlight in week 1 against Minnesota’s former running back Adrian Peterson. Cook should take the torch right away.
Sit
Bilal Powell vs. Buffalo Bills
It’s tempting to start Powell in week 1. I like Powell’s possible production in 2017, especially in the Flex spot. But week 1 isn’t the time back Powell.
I still believe Matt Forte will have a major impact in the early going for the Jets. He should see plenty of first and second down work, limiting Powell’s impact, especially in week 1. Eventually Powell will get some action, but not until Forte fades, which should happen in the coming weeks.
And while the Bills weren’t good against the run last season, they’re returning to a more base format, which should shore up their front seven, making it more difficult for teams to run. This game could be close too for the most part, limiting Powell’s prowess in the passing game. The Jets won’t have to be in comeback mode throughout the four quarters in this one, so don’t risk a roster spot on Powell this week.
Joe Mixon vs. Baltimore Ravens
I’m not only scared of Mixon’s workload in week 1. I’m also frightened of Baltimore’s defense.
The Ravens are always good against the run. The Ravens are regularly a top-10 defense against the run, and in two of the past three seasons, they’ve been a top-five defense. It’s never easy to run against Baltimore and this season, it may be even more difficult.
They’re deeper than they’ve been in the past and the defense still sets up as a run-stuffing machine first. Even if Mixon was going to be a workhorse back with no competition, I still would have major reservations. But Mixon is going to compete with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard for playing time. There’s nothing set in stone that Mixon will receive the bulk of the carries, and even if he did, I still wouldn’t back him.
Mixon may have some value as the season progresses, but it won’t show in week 1.
Mark Ingram vs. Minnesota Vikings
I don’t like Ingram this season anyway. And I especially don’t like his chances in week 1.
First, the Saints have to travel on the road against a Minnesota team built to stop the run. The Vikings are a top-tier NFL defense, with the line as its strength. The Vikings invested in the line in the offseason and it should be even better this season.
That would be enough for me to back off of Ingram this week. But what really has me worried about Ingram is that Adrian Peterson also is on the roster for New Orleans. There’s zero possibility that Peterson doesn’t command the most attention as a running back for the Saints against his former team.
Ingram will take a backseat to Peterson’s revenge tour in week 1.
