Because I’m more apt to commit early fantasy football draft picks on running backs, it’s essential for me to judge a wide receiver’s potential production on the matchups.
Week 1 is a tough one to gauge a wide receiver’s value, but it’s still worth examining which matchups set up nicely, and which ones should be avoided like the plague.
Here’s the week 1 start ’em, sit ’em guide for wide receivers in fantasy football.
Start
Pierre Garcon vs. Carolina Panthers
I’m a rabid apologist for Garcon entering 2017. His ADP was at the tail end of the WR3 spectrum and he deserves way more respect. He’s the No. 1 receiver on a team that will likely play catch-up for much of the season.
And in week 1, he’s squaring off against a defense that was a bottom-five unit against the pass in 2016, which I don’t see as getting leaps and bounds better. There’s a new defensive coordinator and the secondary is still young. I’m also not completely down on Brian Hoyer as a quarterback. Hoyer has shown in the past the ability to put up decent numbers in the passing game.
That should work well in Garcon’s favor. Other than Carlos Hyde, there are no playmakers on this offense for San Francisco. Garcon will be a target machine for the 49ers, providing great value for any fantasy football owner who drafted him.
Alshon Jeffery vs. Washington Redskins
There are some people fading Jeffery’s value heading into 2017. Don’t count me as one of them.
Jeffery is no stranger to putting up 1,000 yards receiving and being a red zone threat. That should warrant more attention than what he’s currently getting from fantasy experts. He’s a solid WR2, who has definite WR1 upside, especially with a quarterback who has had plenty of hype in the offseason.
Jeffery is going to command targets. In three of the past four seasons, he’s generated at least nine targets per game. His biggest issue has been staying on the field.
He has some new scenery and a new quarterback, so I’m banking on a better season than many believe. It also doesn’t hurt to square off against a Washington team that hasn’t figured out how to stop the pass in recent years. Since 2014, the Redskins have been a bottom-10 defense against the pass.
Even with Josh Norman on the other side, I’ll still take my chances in week 1 with Jeffery.
Corey Coleman vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Here’s a shot-in-the-dark pick, but if you’re in need of a WR3, and you have slim pickings in the wide receiver department, Coleman has some upside.
He showed some flashes of ability last season, netting a little more than seven targets per game, sprinkling in a few games with double-digit targets.
If you’re banking on WR3 production, it’s all about targets. And in Cleveland, those targets should start to drift more toward Coleman, as evidenced in the preseason. I’m not a Deshone Kizer fan, but he’s going to have to chuck it this year. It appears he has a good rapport with Coleman, setting up the opportunity for Coleman to generate close to double-digit targets.
Pittsburgh is an emerging defense, but it still isn’t great against the pass. And it’s likely that the Browns are down early in this one, giving way to some garbage time passing totals. That works well in Coleman’s favor.
Sit
Golden Tate vs. Arizona Cardinals
I’m not sold on Tate’s ability to be a target hog. That’s why I didn’t buy his average draft position this year.
He started off slow last year and gained some steam toward the end of the season in 2016. However, he generated the majority of his targets in the final five games of the season, leaving much of the rest of the season with little to desire.
In week 1 this year, he has a tough matchup against a Cardinals team that won’t allow the Lions to move the ball through the air. Tate will have to match up with physical cornerbacks and he won’t be a viable red zone threat. He only scored four touchdowns last year and I don’t anticipate anything coming his way this week in the end zone.
T.Y. Hilton vs. Los Angeles Rams
I know you spent a high draft pick on Hilton. And I know he has been a solid fantasy option in the past.
With no Andrew Luck and the first game being on the road against a pretty formidable defense, this has the makings of a big dud for Hilton.
Hilton has been the kind of player who has that boom or bust capability anyway. His yard-per-completion average is off the charts at 15.7, but he has never gone for more than seven touchdowns in his career.
The Rams added Wade Phillips as a coordinator in the offseason, so even with an inexperienced secondary, I’m not fading the Rams in week 1. The Colts will be under pressure all day, forcing quarterback Scott Tolzien to get rid of it early. That doesn’t work in Hilton’s favor.
Tyreek Hill vs. New England Patriots
I don’t know why you drafted Hill that early, but even if you like him more than I do, I still wouldn’t start him this week.
The Patriots had the entire offseason to prepare for anything Hill would do. He’s the main weapon to stop for the Chiefs and New England usually does a pretty good job at doing that. Giving them the entire offseason to prepare doesn’t help Hill’s chances.
The secondary is still really good in New England, so I don’t anticipate Alex Smith being able to force the ball down the field much in week 1. Look for Travis Kelce to get more of the targets, leaving Hill to be more in the bust category for week 1.
