Week 1 offers everyone in the fantasy football world a fresh start. We haven’t been let down yet, so the optimism is high.
As always is the case, though, problems will arise. To help avoid some of those issues, pay attention to the matchups, especially if you have some depth on your roster.
Here’s my week 1 start ’em, sit ’em for quarterbacks in fantasy football.
Start
Eli Manning vs. Dallas Cowboys
Of the three NFC East teams the Giants play every year, Manning has had the most success against the Cowboys.
In his career, he has 48 touchdowns in 25 games, to go along with a 90.7 QBR. His completion percentage is above 60 and he averages more yards per completion than his career average.
It’s not like he owns the Cowboys, but he’s delivered success for the Giants in the past. And I’m still not sold on Dallas’ defense. Quarterbacks carved them up last year, with Aaron Rodgers finishing off the secondary in the playoffs last season.
Manning has more weapons with the addition of Brandon Marshall and this is his fourth year working with now head coach Ben McAdoo. Manning will be comfortable in the offense and will put up QB1 fantasy totals in week 1.
Jameis Winston vs. Miami Dolphins
I’ve been Winston’s fantasy football campaign chairman since before the summer started. I’m anticipating a big year for the former first pick.
But the public is slow to warming up to Winston. He hasn’t shown big time fantasy production in his first two years, but he’s gradually gotten better. His completion percentage, yards and touchdowns have increased during his two years with the Buccaneers.
Now he has more weapons with the addition of DeSean Jackson. And he doesn’t really have much of a running game, at least until Doug Martin returns from suspension. While I’m bullish on his potential during the season, I’m extremely excited for the first few games since he’ll be the main focus of the offense.
Miami is an average defense against the pass, so they shouldn’t put up much of a fight. We’re basing Winston’s draft position and starting prowess on potential, and that should shine in week 1.
Carson Palmer vs. Detroit Lions
I was all over the Cardinals fading in 2016. That’s why I wasn’t touching Palmer with a 10-foot poll at the position he was drafted last year.
This season, though, he actually provides great value as the 19th ranked QB, according to average draft position, in fantasy football drafts. And in week 1, despite traveling to the Midwest, I’m anticipating a pretty good Arizona team to come out firing.
There’s still talent in Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald may be getting old, but he should still be explosive in the opening weeks. David Johnson is the No. 1 running back for a reason, and much of that has to do with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
And Palmer has something to prove.
Detroit’s defense ranked toward the bottom-10 in 2016 in defending the pass. In fact, they allowed the highest QBR in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks at 106. Palmer will find room to throw against a Detroit team that doesn’t match up well with the Cardinals talent.
Sit
Philip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos
Regardless of what your gut tells you, starting Rivers in week 1 is a bad decision.
The Broncos are consistently among the best against the pass in the NFL. And they’re relentless at pressuring the quarterback, which has been an Achilles heel of the Chargers for the last few years.
In two games last year, he hurled three interceptions against three touchdowns, was sacked six times and totaled more than 200 yards passing in one game against Denver. In 2015, he was even worse, getting sacked seven times in six games and registering a combined 430 passing yards.
It just doesn’t make any sense to start Rivers in week 1. Find a better quarterback. There’s plenty out there.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Get ready for a sophomore slump. And it starts in week 1.
I’m not sitting Prescott just because I don’t believe he can recapture the magic from 2016. I’m also highly concerned with his opposition. The Giants owned a top-10 defense in 2016 and 10 of 11 starters return in 2017.
The pass rush is scary, especially with a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul back in the lineup. And the secondary is one of the best in the NFL, led by Landon Collins and Janoris Jenkins.
Prescott won’t have wide open passing lanes, so he’ll have to make up for those tight windows by using his legs. But even with that running ability, I’m not buying him.
Two of his three worst QBR performances from a year ago were against the Giants. There will be more of that again this year.
Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals
Eventually I believe Stafford will be a pretty reliable fantasy football option in 2017. I’m selling the Lions stock, so I anticipate Stafford will gobble up some garbage time points.
In week 1, though, I’m selling him as a starter. The Cardinals don’t generally travel well, but a closer look at their issues don’t reside with not being able to stop the opposing quarterback.
Arizona traveled to a different time zone five times in 2016 and registered a goose egg in the win column. When those losses happened, it wasn’t because of dominating days by the opposition’s quarterback.
Only once did the Cardinals allow the opposing quarterback to go over 240 yards passing, with three efforts holding them to under 210 yards passing. In three of those five games, they allowed only one touchdown through the air.
The Cardinals will be good once again in the secondary, so I’m banking on Stafford having a tough day, while the Cardinals explode into 2017.
