Running backs are the lifeblood of the best fantasy football teams. But drafting that core group of running backs is much easier said than done.
Injuries are part of the game, so you can’t worry too much about that happening. The top-ranked running back this year, according to average draft position, is Todd Gurley. Gurley just happened to start last season late because of injury.
The No. 2 running back is Adrian Peterson. And while he’s durable and a freak, at some point Father Time is going to call. So it’s imperative to find who you like before you draft and make sure you have a solid ranking system in place just in case another fantasy owner drafts your favorite running back.
Here’s a comparison of multiple running backs slated for different rounds in the upcoming fantasy football draft.
David Johnson vs. Ezekiel Elliott
Tale of the Tape: Johnson, ADP 6 overall (3rd among RB); Elliott, ADP 7 overall (4th among RB).
The Skinny: There’s plenty of hype surrounding Elliott…and with good reason. Dallas’ offensive line resurrected Darren McFadden’s career last year and made him an easy RB2 decision each week.
Elliott is projected to have far more explosiveness than the aging McFadden, and with a healthy Tony Romo manning the quarterback position, the Cowboys’ offense should be one of the better units in the NFL. But with all that hype, we’ve still yet to see Elliott do anything on a professional field. Rookies have shown to adjust right away into the NFL game in the past and Elliott is on that course, but that’s a high draft pick with zero proof that his game will translate on the NFL field.
Johnson, meanwhile, was a fantasy surprise last season, finishing seventh overall in fantasy points among running backs, a startling statistic considering he didn’t start until later in the season. Now the job’s all Johnson’s and he looks poised to generate monster numbers. He’s a three-down back who can catch just as well as run the ball out of the backfield. He also found the endzone at an alarming clip as a rookie, with 12 total touchdowns, second to only Devonta Freeman last season.
The Advantage: Elliott might be a stud. It’s likely that he will be. But I can’t risk my first overall pick on a rookie who already has entered this season with slight injury issues. It’s also not all about Elliott for the Cowboys, with Dez Bryant also needing plenty of touches. In Arizona, an aging Carson Palmer needs Johnson to be a dynamic force out of the backfield. He’s a big-bodied guy who has shown to be able to adjust to the NFL game very well. I don’t see a sophomore slump happening for Johnson. In fact, I see the offense moving more toward a Johnson-first approach, making him a good first-round choice. — Take Johnson
Eddie Lacy vs. Mark Ingram
Tale of the Tape: Lacy, ADP 21 overall (10th among RB); Ingram, ADP 23 overall (11th among RB).
The Skinny: There wasn’t anything skinny about Lacy’s game last season. He was abysmal and was the epitome of what a bust looks like in fantasy football. He registered only 758 yards and had his attempts limited significantly, down by almost 100 in the same amount of games from 2013.
But now he’s in shape, or least that’s what photos from his offseason show. And he’s been there before as a fantasy standout, going for 24 total touchdowns in his first two seasons, to go along with two season of more than 1,000 yards rushing.
Ingram had more success last season, but he’s had trouble staying on the field. He hasn’t played a full season since 2012, and when he does see the field, he hasn’t displayed the multi-tiered threat that Lacy has shown in the past. But, if last year is any indication, maybe he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He had more yards receiving last year than any other year combined. That makes him a bit more appetizing heading into this season.
The Advantage: There’s flaws for both, but I see the greater upside with Lacy. Lacy was a first-round fantasy pick last season. Now, we’re getting him at the end of the second round, and possibly slipping into the beginning of the third round. That’s good value for a guy on an offense that should be clicking on all cylinders again this season. Ingram is always at this level and while I don’t generally play the injury game, he has a proven track record of missing multiple games every season. And with this being his sixth year, I don’t see that getting any better. I’m taking a thinner, hungrier version of Lacy. — Take Lacy
Justin Forsett vs. Derrick Henry
Tale of the Tape: Forsett, ADP 93 overall (34th among RB); Henry, ADP 99 overall (38th among RB).
The Skinny: And this is why you draft running backs early. Both of these backs should be available in the eighth and ninth rounds, and if you’re banking on them to be your RB2, then your team is in trouble. However, if they’re creating depth for your roster as a backup or possibly as a Flex down the road, they could pay dividends for your team. Both have severe question marks, though. Henry is the rookie, and while he may improve as the season goes along, how long are you willing to wait for increased production? He’s a long-term option if you believe DeMarco Murray is injury-prone (which he is) and likely not as good as he actually showed two years ago (which is likely accurate).
Forsett, on the other hand, is the starter, according to the Ravens’ depth chart, but will he split carries with Bernard Pierce, who is a change-of-pace back? And Forsett’s career is a bit of a mystery, anyway. He pretty much didn’t do anything in his career until a breakout season in 2014. Then he was limited by injuries last season. So it’s difficult to know what to expect out of the ninth-year running back.
The Advantage: Henry is a sneaky play that could be solid for your roster toward the back-end of the season, while Forsett is an immediate starter. Fantasy owners have itchy-trigger fingers, so I believe they may give up too early on Henry, making him available on the waiver wire later in the season. Murray is going to dominate the carries in the early going making it appear that Henry will be non-existent on the fantasy radar. That makes it likely he could be dropped, allowing you to pick him up, if you believe that he will eventually take over for Murray later in the season. For that reason, I’m taking the immediate starter on an offense that should be much improved from last year. — Take Forsett
