Wide receivers are becoming a model of consistency for fantasy owners.
As long as injuries don’t derail their season (i.e. Dez Bryant in 2015), then busts are far harder to find than in the running back category. That creates a bit of a dilemma at the top of the draft board for many fantasy owners.
Do you take a running back in the first round, which could be a major risk? Or do you take a consistently productive wide receiver that has proven year-over-year to put up big numbers and be a mainstay on the field?
For many fantasy owners, they’re putting those wide receivers at the top of their boards. The top-three wide receivers according to average draft position, are in the top-four of overall picks, according to FantasyPros. Three other wide receivers round out the first round in a standard 12-team league.
Collecting wide receivers features less risk, but you’re also exposing yourself to far less capable running backs. Wide receivers are more likely to be found on the waiver wire than running backs.
Here’s a snapshot of three different levels of wide receivers and who grades out the best.
Dez Bryant vs. A.J. Green
Tale of the Tape: Bryant, ADP 11 overall (5th among WR); Green, ADP 12 overall (6th among WR).
The Skinny: Both receivers are their respective team’s No. 1 option, but only one of these players is pretty much the only proven dominating skill guy on the roster.
Bryant has Terrance Williams on the opposite side of him with a rookie running back in the backfield and an aging tight end on the line. Green is surrounded by Brandon LaFell, who has put up decent numbers for New England in the past, and an emerging tight end in Tyler Eifert. The backfield also features Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, who is more than capable of catching balls out of the backfield.
So they’re not completely created equally in terms of their No. 1 monicker. But both receivers have shown in the past to put up big numbers. Green finished eighth among receivers in scoring last season, while Bryant sat out most of the year because of injury. When healthy, though, Bryant has been a top-five fantasy option since 2012.
The Advantage: I’m higher on the Cowboys’ offense than most, so I’m going all the way with Bryant in this case. At the No. 11 mark, you could probably get him at the tail end of the first round and then snake your way into a running back at the beginning of the second round. That would give you two prolific scorers in the wide receiver and running back positions. Green will put up some numbers, but I haven’t seen the consistency on a game-to-game basis. There’s more weapons at Andy Dalton’s disposal and at some point the Bengals are going to take a step back. This year may be that year. — Take Bryant
T.Y. Hilton vs. Kelvin Benjamin
Tale of the Tape: Hilton, ADP 33 overall (17th among WR); Benjamin, ADP 35 overall (18th among WR)
The Skinny: Both are young and both have dynamic quarterbacks. But only one of these is the primary weapon for their quarterback. Hilton has put up good statistics in his first four years. He’s been over 1,000 yards receiving in the last three seasons and he has a healthy Andrew Luck this season. But he’s a big-play receiver, who can disappear at times, especially with Donte Moncrief becoming more of a focal point in the offense, along with Phillip Dorsett. There’s a lot of people to throw the ball to in Indianapolis, making it difficult for Hilton to put up big numbers each week.
Benjamin, on the other hand, is pretty much the only weapon as far as receivers go in Carolina. That showed last season when Benjamin was injured as Cam Newton pretty much targeted tight end Greg Olsen endlessly, forcing defenses to adjust their focus to only on Olsen.
During his rookie campaign, Benjamin went for more than 1,000 yards and totaled more touchdowns than Hilton has ever mustered in a single season.
The Advantage: Benjamin has the biggest upside of the pair. He’s a big-bodied receiver who should be improved from his rookie season. He will be a touchdown magnet, something Hilton will never be in his career. Hilton gets his touchdowns from big plays. Benjamin gets them in the red zone. I like my chances at more points with Benjamin. — Take Benjamin
Stefon Diggs vs. Josh Gordon
Tale of the Tape: Diggs, ADP 106 overall (43rd among WR); Gordon, ADP 109 overall (44th among WR).
The Skinny: I don’t believe Gordon will be available in the 10th round of fantasy football drafts. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but many fantasy owners pick the guy they’ve heard of. Many of them have heard of Gordon. Many of them possibly haven’t heard of Diggs as a WR3 option.
If Gordon can return to the level of what he once was before he was kicked out of the league for year, he would be the biggest steal of the draft. He was a beast in 2013 with 1,646 yards receiving and nine touchdowns. But he must miss the first four games of this season, meaning he will have missed 29 games in the last three seasons. That’s asking a lot of a person to expect him to be back to playing shape right away when he enters the season in the fifth week.
Diggs, meanwhile, had a nice rookie season and was the main weapon at times for the Vikings. He faded at the end of the season, but all reports out of training camp have him as the clear-cut No. 1 guy for the Vikings right away.
The Advantage: Gordon isn’t going to be on the board in the 10th. Mark my words. And even if he was, I’d still give Diggs the edge. Diggs is an emerging talent and at some point Teddy Bridgewater is going to take a step forward in progression. Diggs will benefit from that maturation and if you can get him as a WR3, that creates a good staple of wide receivers. — Take Diggs
