March Madness is under way and for those who fancy their chances it’s important to know what sports betting sites have to offer before placing any money down. From sign up bonuses to different odds on the favorites; such as #1 seeds Villanova and Virginia are the two biggest favorites to move onto the Sweet 16 in the South and East regions. Both are roughly at 1/4 (80% chance).
However, in the other two regions, the #1 seeds do not have the best odds to reach the second weekend. In the West, #1 Xavier is 4/7 (64%) to win its first two games, while #2 UNC is at 1/2 (67%). In the Midwest, #1 Kansas is 2/3 (60%), behind #2 Duke at 2/7 (78%). Xavier and Kansas are both manifestly flawed 1-seeds. The Jayhawks, in particular, have little to no frontcourt presence if Udoka Azubuike doesn’t come back, and face a potential second-round matchup against Seton Hall and rebounding savant Angel Delgado.
Betting on those top picks doesn’t create great value for your wallet. Prop bets like Sweet 16 handicapping offers you a little more incentive to keep watching the tournament, even if you have a rough start to your bracket. Here’s the best value picks to consider when looking at Sweet 16 props.
Wichita State, +120
Anytime you can get this kind of value for a team that I believe will be a Final Four entrant, then you have to take it.
The Shockers are a top-10 team in offensive efficiency and are about as balanced as any team in the nation on offense. Defensively, they haven’t been as good, but with Gregg Marshall at the helm, I’m not concerned with that unit this time of year. The draw isn’t bad, with a Marshall team that ranks 153rd in offensive efficiency, and also can’t play defense, and then a likely date with a West Virginia team that has struggled historically in this tournament.
For a team with a No. 4 seed, this is probably the best value you will get for a highly likely contestant in the Sweet 16.
Michigan, +110 (not to make it)
What’s awesome about this prop bet is that you can actually take teams not to make the Sweet 16. So, I’m rolling with the Wolverines, who have had basically two weeks off before tipping off again this week against Montana.
The Grizzlies aren’t bad. They’re a top-20 offensive unit and the defense isn’t terrible. Michigan’s draw as a three-seed is terrible.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Michigan will either face a Houston team that is loaded with talent, or a San Diego State team as hot as about anybody in this tournament. Michigan occasionally has some issues on the defensive end, so that could come back to haunt them against offensive-minded teams.
Auburn, -110 (not to make it)
Now we’re getting into less value, but enough to make it worth booking against the Tigers.
Auburn is limping into the NCAA tournament, which isn’t a good sign with either Clemson or New Mexico State awaiting in the next round. The College of Charleston isn’t a bad first-round matchup for the Tigers, but I hate the second round.
The Aggies are elite on the defensive end, while Clemson isn’t bad either on that side of the ball. And even though those offenses don’t necessarily scare me, I’m not sure Auburn’s defense can hold up on a consistent basis. Oddsmakers are worried, too, so that’s why the value isn’t as high with this pick. Take the number, and go against Auburn.
Florida, +165
This is a flier pick based on talent. The Gators are loaded, but they’re inconsistent.
Just look at the last six games for the Gators. Wins against Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn are nice. Losses against Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Arkansas aren’t so nice.
The Gators are good enough to make it to the second weekend, and the draw isn’t terrible. St. Bonaventure is beatable in the first round, while a matchup with Texas Tech also is winnable in the second round. The Red Raiders are known to go on droughts offensively, so if the Gators can take advantage of those stretches, then Florida offers some of the best value among teams likely to go to the Sweet 16.
Terrible Picks!