Upsets are going to happen when the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tips off this week.
This year, even more so than other seasons, is ripe for the underdog with no clear-cut dominant team and favorites losing at a regular clip. But don’t be so fast to write in those 13 over 4’s, 14 over 3’s, or even the 16 over 1’s.
Since 2010, the amount of mid-majors pulling off the first-round upset is not as high as you might perceive. The most upsets since that time happened in 2014 with five in the first round. In 2012 and 2010, mid-majors completed four upsets, while in 2011 and 2013, it was three.
Last season, even with a plethora of teams that won the regular season and conference titles in their mid-major conference, only two completed first-round upset.
If you’re playing at home, that’s only an average of 3.5 upsets per year by mid-majors in a game featuring a seed differential of more than three.
That’s not great odds considering there will be 27 non-power-five conference tournament champions crowned this season.
And while I’m not sold on many of those power-five conference teams, or the conferences that should be considered in that group, like the Big East, I’m even less sold on the teams that will represent those mid-majors.
The upsets have already happened in the lower-tier conference tournaments. And in terms of those mid-major conference basketball tournaments, that’s a problem when the Big Dance comes calling.
Quality mid-major teams generally pull off upsets in the first round. It’s not usually the teams that finish middle of the pack in the America East.
Before the weekend’s conference tournaments, only four of the non-power-five conferences had No. 1 seeds win the tournament. One of those winners was Gonzaga, which tied for first in the West Coast Conference.
I doubt anyone considers them a mid-major anymore.
The three others are South Dakota State, Chattanooga and UNC Wilmington.
Don’t sleep on the Jackrabbits. They are tournament-tested with this being the third trip to the tournament since 2012. They’re 0-2 in those two previous games, but to be fair, the two opponents they lost to finished in the Elite Eight and the championship game in those two seasons.
South Dakota State lost only games away from home this year and beat some power-five conference teams along the way.
The team can come at you in multiple ways, with three players scoring in double-figures, with a fourth averaging 9.1 points per game. They’re deep, too, with nine players averaging double-digit minutes per game.
Despite my initial love for South Dakota State, there are several of the mid-majors that I won’t pick this season. Five of the 12 conference tournament champions were seeded third or below, including two teams that finished below-.500 during the conference’s regular season.
Those two teams, Austin Peay, which finished fourth in its division, and Holy Cross, which notched a blistering 5-13 conference record, will likely be relegated to the opening games as 16 seeds.
Don’t expect the major upsets to occur on the first two days of the Big Dance this season. Wait until the weekend before being bold.
