The NFL season kicks off this weekend (finally). It’s preseason and neither team will likely show us much, but the game will likely draw bigger ratings than the average Major League Baseball telecast.
Here’s some things to watch out for when Green Bay squares off against Indianapolis on Sunday.
The Spread: The line opened at even and remains at the number. If both teams faced each other on a neutral field in the regular season, I’d expect the Packers to be a four-point favorite. This game, though, is all about which team’s second- and- third-stringers are better. For my money, I’m going with the Colts to spoil the Packers’ Hall of Fame weekend…sort of, since this doesn’t matter at all.
Quarterback battle: There aren’t many games that would pit two better quarterbacks against each other. Aaron Rodgers is a walking hype machine this season as many expect him to cruise this season with a healthy roster of receivers. Luck is returning from injury and the hype is disappearing at a fast clip. While Rodgers is the consensus No. 2 quarterback on the board in fantasy circles with an average draft position of 28, Luck has taken a drastic turn this season.
He entered last year as the prohibitive No. 1 fantasy football quarterback, with several fantasy owners taking him in the first round. This year, though, he’s ranked as the fourth-best option with an ADP of 42, putting him in the middle of the third round. That’s still a bit too high for my blood on a quarterback, especially if Ben Roethlisberger is available 12 spots later, as indicated by FantasyPros.
ATS outlook: Green Bay was solid against the spread last season, going 11-7 overall, the fourth-best percentage in the NFL. That’s quite an achievement for a team that was regularly more than a field goal favorite. The Packers played most of their games as a favorite, going 8-6 ATS. However, as an underdog, they were deadly, with a 3-1 ATS mark. Don’t expect the Packers to even have four games as an underdog this season.
Indianapolis played half of its games as a favorite and didn’t fare near as well. The Colts were 2-6 ATS as a favorite and 8-8 overall. Obviously, the high expectations eventually eroded, allowing gamblers to utilize the Colts as a solid underdog. This season, the spreads will likely feature the Colts as favorites. With a healthy Luck, that shouldn’t be too difficult to overcome. In 2014, the Colts were favorites in 15 games and went 10-4-1 ATS.
Fantasy impact: There’s not much to see in terms of fantasy. The starters will likely only play one series. The biggest impact I’m watching is if either team can develop a solid third option within the wide receiver position. Both teams will be high-functioning passing teams, making it possible that the third option could be a fantasy starter on many teams.
For Green Bay, I’ll be watching if Devante Adams can catch a pass or if Ty Montgomery will make a move for more playing time. On the other side of the ball, is there a reliable option other than Donte Moncrief or TY Hilton? Phillip Dorsett has the skill, but I’d like to see more from him to use him on my fantasy roster.
