The power-five conference teams took it on the nose against the spread in week 1 in college football.
And while favorites are sometimes more of an option in college football than the NFL, it proves that the underdog is still alive on a weekly basis.
Power-five conference teams were a combined 27-35-2 ATS in week 1, with no major conference owning a winning record against the spread. Most of the power-five teams won, but they didn’t win big enough.
Here’s a snapshot of each conference and what teams impressed and fell flat on their face in week 1.
ACC – 6-6-2 ATS
Welcome to 2016 Louisville and Miami. The two teams combined to beat the spread by 17.5 and 15 points respectively and dominated their opponents by a combined 123 points straight up.
Granted, both teams played bad competition, but it’s always nice to win comfortably like that in week 1.
The biggest disappointment award for every power-five conference has to go to Virginia. The Cavaliers entered Saturday’s game as 11-point favorites, and at one point, were actually down 30-7 in the fourth quarter to Richmond. They eventually lost 37-20, putting them at a monstrous negative-28 points against the spread. Word to the wise, avoid Virginia this season.
Big 12 – 5-5 ATS
What’s sad is these top two conferences were actually the best teams against the spread in week 1 among power-five schools. Texas looked the part of what I predicted before the season, but how about those Jayhawks? Last year I booked the under at 1.5 for season win totals, a bet that had me mocked until the end of the season.
This season, I took a different approach and booked Kansas at the over at 1.5 wins. And guess what? Kansas is a favorite this weekend against Ohio. If Kansas beats the Bobcats, it’s likely the earliest an over has ever happened in football history.
The Jayhawks were the most impressive Big 12 team against the spread, beating the number by 21 points en route to a 49-point victory.
There were some disappointments, though. Iowa State continued its trend of losing to UNI, failing the spread by 14.5 points. But Oklahoma took home the disappointment trophy. The Sooners were 13-point favorites against Houston (a ridiculous number now that we look back on it). Oklahoma lost, and was a negative-23 points ATS.
Big 10 – 6-8 ATS
Ohio State and Michigan don’t care about big spreads. That should have already been apparent before week 1 with Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh not afraid to run up the score. Their combined margin of victory was 127 points, giving them a combined 59.5-point advantage compared to the spread. Keep an eye on both of those teams this year, regardless of where oddsmakers set the spread.
There weren’t a ton of disappointments in the Big 10. A lot of close losses defined the conference in week 1 with five teams missing an ATS victory by less than a touchdown. However, the biggest loser was Michigan State, which underperformed like usual against the spread in week 1, winning the game by 15 points, but losing to the spread by 22.5 points.
Pac-12 – 5-7 ATS
Maybe Colorado is a lot better. Or maybe Colorado State is on pace to get head coach Mike Bobo fired.
Whatever the case, week 1 was a slaughter, which was a surprise to oddsmakers. The Buffaloes entered the game as seven-point favorites and left the game winning by 37 points. That was by far the biggest spread-adjusted victory of the week in the Pac-12.
If Virginia was the biggest loser of the week, USC and Washington State were a close second. USC got dominated on national TV by 46 points, while Washington State once again lost to an FCS opponent. Against the spread, the teams lost by a combined 62.5 points.
SEC – 5-9 ATS
If USC was a major loser, then Alabama was one of the biggest winners. The Crimson Tide won by the second-most points against the spread of any power-five conference team (Ohio State was the top performer). That’s impressive for a team that generally disappoints against the spread. This will only open up more possibilities for bettors to get more advantage when betting against Alabama this season.
There were plenty of losers in the SEC, too, but the biggest was Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost at home to an FCS team, meaning they lost by a spread-adjusted 28.5 points. It wasn’t a great day for the SEC, with seven straight-up losses and seven losses ATS by more than a touchdown. The betting public loves to overvalue the SEC. Keep that in mind when betting the SEC this season.
