It’s all about Oklahoma again in the Big 12.
Oddsmakers have pegged the Sooners as overwhelming favorites this season to win the conference title at -140. The odds are padded in their favor because of Baylor’s uneasy offseason and no other team seemingly ready to take the next step.
The Sooners return 12 starters from last year’s College Football Playoff qualifier, including quarterback Baker Mayfield, and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. There’s no reason to believe Oklahoma will take much of a step back, especially considering most of the concerns are on the defensive side of the ball and that side is optional in the Big 12.
The defense will have plenty of time to get through the growing pains and the Sooners likely won’t have much of a challenge.
Best Sleeper
Texas +750
I’ll admit, I’m all in on the Longhorns. Head coach Charlie Strong just didn’t lose his ability to coach overnight, and in year three at Texas, that ability will start to show through.
The talent will be better on both sides of the ball, and even when the Longhorns went 5-7 overall last year, they were able to beat Oklahoma. Don’t ask me how that happened, but Strong has shown the ability to beat the Sooners with a lesser team.
What I also like about the Longhorns’ ability to win the Big 12 is their schedule. They will be battle-tested when they start the conference season. Two of the first three games will be at home against Notre Dame and at California. Then, Texas will travel to Oklahoma State before squaring off with Oklahoma.
There’s not many first five games harder than that in college football. But that will prepare the Longhrons for the rest of the season, when the schedule settles down significantly.
Last year, I was all over the surprise contender in the Big 12. Don’t be surprised if the Longhorns repeat Oklahoma State’s rise from last year.
Most Overrated
Oklahoma State +500
I loved Oklahoma State last year. I loved they way they ended 2014, heading into the 2015 season. I loved the schedule, with the big games coming at home. And I loved their talent and motivation coming off a 7-6 campaign.
This year, I’m pretty much the polar opposite.
The Cowboys travel to Baylor, Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma. The defense sputtered mightily down the stretch last year, allowing at least 45 points in the final three games, and at least four touchdowns in the season’s final six games. The Big 12 is all about more offense, but there comes a time when you have to play some defense.
I didn’t see that from the Cowboys at the end of last season. To make matters worse, the Cowboys also suffer from a need to improve their offensive line, which could be especially problematic if the defense doesn’t improve.
The Big 12 is loaded and unforgiving. The Cowboys had a nice run last year, but I’d be surprised if they were in the conversation for a Big 12 title late in the season.
Big 12 Odds
Oklahoma -140
Oklahoma State +500
TCU +500
Texas +750
Baylor +800
West Virginia +1200
Texas Tech +2500
Kansas State +3300
Iowa State +10000
Kansas +25000
