The playoffs have been a welcomed sight for my NFL handicapping record.
For the most part, the games have gone pretty much as I anticipated, and even the NFC Championship should have gone my way had it not been for a blown call.
But now it’s time for Super Bowl 53. Who owns the edge? Here’s my predictions for the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I just hate to go against New England with the spread being less than a field goal.
Bill Belichick is not going to get outcoached. Tom Brady is not going to be outplayed. And I have to believe the New England defense will have plenty of ability to at least slow down a Rams offense that has shifted down a gear in recent weeks.
While the Rams have averaged 5.6 yards per play in recent weeks, the Patriots are remaining consistent at 5.9. The Patriots have the experience and the motivation from last year’s loss.
And don’t forget the crowd will likely be heavily sided toward New England, with basically the entire city of Los Angeles not caring about the Rams.
When the spread is this low, it’s almost impossible to ignore the Patriots. New England knows how to handle this time of year, so I’m banking on experience and the team of Brady/Belichick in this one. — Go Chalk with New England
Over/Under 56.5
So I split on this one in the conference championship games, too, with only one of my overs coming through.
Most of the people are going with the over. The betting public will take the over, since that is generally the most popular option. Fifty-six percent of the bettors on the total are hammering the over.
That should create some good value for people taking the under. With both defenses playing better, and the Rams offense taking a step back, this is a good opportunity to take the under. Look for a 27 to 23 score in favor of New England, providing enough room for the under. — Go Under
