It was a rare off week in week 11 for my college football picks, gobbling up my only ATS win with my favorites as I rode Missouri once again.
The Tigers are smoking hot and get a Vanderbilt team on the road that was just hammered at home to Kentucky. It’s tempting to go with Missouri once again, and while I believe they will cover, I have three other games I like more in the week 12 college football picks featuring my three best favorites.
Overall: 40-26 ATS
Favorites: 19-14 ATS
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-20)
Remember when Vanderbilt beat Kansas State at home and everyone started riding the Commodores bandwagon? That seems like an eternity ago, and it should have said something to us about the Wildcats.
They aren’t very good.
Kansas State doesn’t score consistently enough to make up for a less-than-average defense. They needed a miracle to beat Texas Tech two weeks ago to give Kansas State a 2-4 mark in the last six games.
Don’t worry about the less-than-desirable performance in week 11 by Oklahoma State. The Cyclones defense is pretty good and the Cowboys were able to do whatever they wanted. Defensively, I expect Oklahoma State to be good against the run (they rank 15th in the nation in yards per rushing attempt), forcing Kansas State to air it out.
The Wildcats aren’t comfortable in that circumstance, so I expect this to be a blowout. — Go Chalk with Oklahoma State
Texas A&M at Mississippi (-3)
Texas A&M is going to bring a better defense, but it’s not good enough to keep up with the surging Rebels.
Ole Miss may not stop many teams, but it’s been impossible of late to stop the Rebels. Mississippi is averaging eight yards per play on offense in the last three games, the third-best mark in college football.
The results haven’t been great for the Rebels, but Texas A&M doesn’t do well against teams that can score with them. In two of the last three games, the Aggies have played Auburn and Mississippi State, and they were beaten in both instances by wide margins.
This should be a shootout, but I’m backing the better offense at home in this one. — Go Chalk with Mississippi
UCLA at USC (-16)
Against good teams, UCLA fails in a major way.
In the Pac-12, against teams with winning records, the Bruins haven’t been within 16 points…which just happens to be the number in this game.
Make no mistake about it, USC is a good team, and they’re starting to look like the team we anticipated in the preseason.
UCLA can’t stop anyone, so that will be a major issue against the Trojans, which has at least 38 points in each of the last three games. In those games, the Trojans are averaging 7.6 yards per play, more than two yards more than the Bruins in that time period at 5.5 yards per play.
This is a major mismatch and I can’t believe I’m only having to give up 16 points. I understand the rivalry aspect, but USC is on fire and the much better team. Back the Trojans. — Go Chalk with USC
