Thanksgiving week. A time for football, family and friends. And it’s a time to evaluate which teams in the NFL have given up and which are going to play hard for the final month.
It’s a time-honored tradition for some teams to just go in the tank for the final month of the season. But there’s also those teams that stay the course, no matter how bad their prospects are for the postseason (i.e. the Rams every year).
The spreads are higher, but that shouldn’t keep you away from betting some of those favorites. Here’s the week 12 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 3-3 ATS
Overall: 33-30-3 ATS
Jacksonville at Buffalo (-7.5)
We have our first team in the “Give up” category.
Jacksonville had expectations coming into the season, but has reverted back to its old ways. There’s no chance Gus Bradley comes back for 2017, so they’re playing for a lame-duck coach in the midst of four road games in five weeks.
Last week I gave Jacksonville a chance to compete and it did for the most part. But turnovers plagued them once again, and the offense just isn’t turning the corner. Blake Bortles isn’t the answer, and the work he did last year in garbage time, isn’t translating to the time that matters this year.
Meanwhile, the Bills have quietly put together a nice team. No team runs the ball better than Buffalo. And the Bills are staying away from turnovers.
That’s a recipe for extreme success on a weekly basis.
Rex Ryan is the king of playing with his back against the wall. Buffalo is 5-5 and needs to win this game for a chance at the playoffs. That plays directly in his hands.
The matchup works well, too, with the Jaguars owning a bottom-10 rush defense, compared to Buffalo’s run away rushing train. Don’t be scared of the more than touchdown spread. The Jaguars will be checked out for this one. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
Carolina (+3.5) at Oakland
Last week’s cover with Oakland was a nice fourth quarter surprise. Expecting a simple field goal late in the fourth quarter, I was treated to a touchdown, thus giving me the 5.5-point cover.
This week, though, will be a much more difficult challenge.
Carolina has caused multiple heart attacks for bettors as of late, including me. The Panthers have won three of four games, but they’ve covered in only one of those games.
Two of the other three games lost out on covers by a combined one point, while the other game (a loss to Kansas City) featured the Panthers ahead for the majority of the game. It’s heartbreak city with Carolina at the moment.
But that heartbreak will end this week.
Oakland has been playing with fire in 2016. Only two of the eight wins have been by more than a touchdown, with both of those wins coming against a depleted Denver roster and a Jacksonville team that I already described as highly disappointing.
The other games are close, with Derek Carr usually bailing out the Raiders in the final seconds. That isn’t sustainable.
The Panthers have played better in recent weeks, as evidenced by the 3-1 record. There are still some deficiencies, but as long as Carolina can run on an opponent, they can move the chains.
And against Oakland, that shouldn’t be an issue. The Raiders were gashed consistently against Houston in week 11 and that’s been a regular case this season. Oakland owns the seventh-worst rushing defense in the NFL and allows the second-highest yards per carry at 4.6.
Carolina’s pass defense isn’t good either, but as long as the Panthers can keep the ball out of Carr’s hands, this game will be close. Carolina’s offense will eat up clock, neutralizing Oakland’s high-octane passing attack. — Go Against The Chalk with Carolina
San Diego at Houston (+1.5)
Oddsmakers must hate the Texans. They’re consistently undervalued against teams with similar to worse talent levels.
I understand putting Houston as underdogs to elite teams. They always lose those games. But against teams like San Diego, the Texans should be favorites, especially at home.
Houston beats the mediocre to bad teams, and loses to the good teams. San Diego shouldn’t be in the same category of good teams, especially after blowing another late game against Miami in week 11.
And in this game, the matchup doesn’t set up well for the Chargers. San Diego relies on passing, but Houston is elite against opposing quarterbacks. And while the Chargers are good against the run, they’ve been especially bad against the pass, even allowing Ryan Tannehill to shred them in week 11.
The league at one point was calling for Mike McCoy’s head coaching job at San Diego. That has died off in recent weeks, but I’m wondering if that emotion to play for their coach as caught up with the Chargers.
Injuries have reared their ugly head again at San Diego this year and that also may be a contributing factor. I’m backing the underdog in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Houston
Bonus Bets
Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5) — Minnesota’s offense on a short week on the road is a disastrous thing to back as a bettor. The Vikings may have won in week 11, but that had more to do with Arizona’s ineptitude than the Vikings’ skill. Detroit will move the ball against Minnesota. — Go Chalk with Detroit
Washington (+7.5) at Dallas — I get a high-volume passing team against a below-average passing defense. This game should be closer than many people predict. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4.5) — Cincinnati is one of those teams not used to being in this predicament. They’re outside the playoff picture and we’re only in November. They’ve given up and the injuries are piling up. Baltimore needs this more and it will show on the field. — Go Chalk with Baltimore
