Other than one horrendous week in the last five weeks, my NFL picks have been on point. That’s especially true with my underdogs.
So why stop now with the underdogs? Here’s my week 13 NFL picks featuring three underdogs to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 35-33-4 ATS
SuperContest: 28-27-5 ATS (30.5 points)
Underdogs: 18-15-3 ATS
Baltimore Ravens (+1) at Atlanta Falcons
I can’t believe the Falcons are favorite in this matchup.
The Falcons have gotten worse as the season has progressed. And while the Ravens aren’t a top-tier team, they’re still good enough to be considered a playoff team.
In the last three weeks, the Falcons are averaging just 0.2 yards per play more than Baltimore. Defensively, there’s a bit more of discrepancy, with Baltimore giving up 4.8 yards per play in the last three games, while Atlanta has stayed consistent, allowing 6.3 yards per play.
The Falcons are not a good enough defensive team to trust in this instance, especially squaring off against a Ravens team that is still among the best in the NFL on that side of the ball.
The Ravens have improved in recent weeks running the football, generating 5.1 yards per rush in the last three weeks. The Falcons are terrible against the rush, giving up 5.5 yards per play in the last three weeks.
Baltimore is a much better team, so don’t fall in love with Atlanta’s home-field advantage in this matchup. — Go Against The Chalk with Baltimore
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s a bit painstaking to trust bad teams on the road. And trust me, it’s bit me badly in past years.
But I just can’t avoid this matchup.
San Francisco isn’t as bad as you think. The 49ers are actually averaging 0.1 yards more per play in the last three weeks than Seattle, while giving up 2.5 fewer yards per play in that same time.
Seattle plays well as an underdog, thanks to Russell Wilson’s ability to conjure up big comebacks. I’m not sure how good they can be as favorites, when their weaknesses are on full display.
San Francisco is going to establish the run, which is a major weakness for Seattle. While the 49ers keep the ball away from Wilson, they should keep this game close. There is some worry about the 49ers going cross-country in back-to-back weeks, but I’ll give them a pass in favor of a plus-matchup. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5)
The key question that comes to mind in this game is if the Bengals have quit.
I don’t think so. The Bengals are finally getting a little healthier and there’s some renewed optimism with Jeff Driskel taking over for injured Andy Dalton.
The defense has been atrocious in recent weeks, but that unit is getting healthier, too. And I’m not so sure the Bengals are that much worse than the Broncos, which I’m still not betting on as a solid road team, despite the most recent results.
The Broncos don’t have much of a defense anymore and the offense isn’t good enough to completely take control of this game.
This is a great number against a Denver team that shouldn’t be considered a top-tier AFC team. — Go Against The Chalk with Cincinnati
