Better late than never.
After weeks of struggles, I finally burst through with a perfect week in week 13, going 6-0 ATS, sweating very little along the way.
This week offers plenty of low spreads, so week 14 will be all about picking straight up winners. Last week, that wasn’t a problem with my underdogs, going 3-0 ATS and straight up. Here’s the the week 14 NFL picks featuring my favorite three underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 16-22-1 ATS
Overall: 33-43-2 ATS
San Francisco (+3) at Houston
I love this matchup. The 49ers are showing improvement, while the Texans are missing the mark. Houston already gives up an average of 7.4 yards per pass play, and has seen its yards per carry reach 5.2 in the last three games.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is showing improvement with its stagnant offense, averaging 5.8 yards per play in the last three games, far better than their season average of 4.9.
Jimmy Garoppolo gives this offense more of a consistent feel, and should allow that running game to be more productive. Defensively, the 49ers also are showing improvement in recent weeks, and shouldn’t be outclassed by a Houston offense with Tom Savage at the quarterback position.
San Francisco has some talent and played well in the first part of the season, but lost close games en route to a horrible start. That talent is still there with a better quarterback at the helm. San Francisco is much better than their record indicates. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Green Bay at Cleveland (+3.5)
At least this week, the betting public in general believes in the Browns. It’s not just me.
Cleveland finally covered last week thanks to an overvaluing of a Los Angeles team that generally loses close, and wins close. This week, oddsmakers set the line at six points in favor of Green Bay, only to see the early action whittle that spread to a little more than a field goal.
There’s a reason to why that was a bad line to begin with. On paper, these teams are similar. The defenses give up about the same yards per play, with Cleveland owning a slight edge. The offenses are about the same, with the Packers owning a slight edge.
Overall, Green Bay isn’t good. Aaron Rodgers is, but the team, overall, is bad. That’s been evident in recent weeks. I believed in Green Bay last week, only because I believed the offense would start to see some growth. I was wrong, but thanks to smoke and mirrors, the Packers won anyway.
You can’t count on smoke and mirrors in games you’re supposed to win. The Browns will win eventually, and this opportunity offers plenty of upside. — Go Against The Chalk with Cleveland
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of huge swings, the betting public is on the opposite side of me in this one. The Eagles actually opened as 2.5-point favorites, only to see the action swing four points in favor of the Rams.
That’s a mistake.
The Eagles are still really good. And if you saw that Monday night game, you would have seen a relentless pass rush, which we’ve seen develop in recent weeks by Philadelphia, only to be neutralized by Russell Wilson’s legs.
Jared Goff won’t have that kind of luck. The Eagles are similar to what the Rams ran into against Minnesota. Philadelphia can run and pass on offense, and can stop the run, forcing the Rams into a one-dimensional offensive unit. Other than Minnesota, I don’t believe the Rams have played any team able to do all those things this season.
Don’t lose sight of who the Rams have beaten this season. Los Angeles’ wins have come against Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona (twice), Dallas, the New York Giants, Houston (without DeShaun Watson), Jacksonville and New Orleans. Only New Orleans and Jacksonville have a winning record among that bunch, and the remainder of those teams have a combined record of 22-40.
Don’t give up just yet on the Eagles. — Go Against The Chalk with Philadelphia
