I went over .500 in week 1 for NFL picks against the spread, so I won’t complain too much. I thought I would get a better effort from the New York Giants, but it’s about time I start believing in Dallas.
That anti-Dallas mindset killed me last year toward the end of the season and it failed me again in week 1. So, it’s time to adjust.
Overall: 3-2-1 ATS
Underdogs: 1-1-1 ATS
New England at New Orleans (+7)
People must really believe in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. I get it since they’ve won several titles together and been NFL royalty.
The public is reacting to New England’s week 1 loss like it’s a shocking development. I’m not sure if you didn’t know, but NFL teams lose — even the best ones. And a lot of times, they play in close games.
The Patriots are human. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that they would suffer a bit of a hangover from another Super Bowl win. Last year was an emotional, beat-down of the NFL system. It was Brady’s revenge tour and that took a lot of emotion each week.
It’s natural to suffer a bit of a malaise the next year, and even Brady acknowledged that in week 1. With this spread, I’m assuming the public believes that in one week, that attitude will shift, the pass rush will automatically be better and Brady will get more comfortable with his wide receivers.
And this will all happen on the road in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
I’m not buying it. New England will be in the playoffs by season’s end. To think they’ll struggle in the early going as they adjust to the new pieces and learn to win again without that angst against the NFL, will take some time.
New Orleans isn’t as bad as we saw in week 1 either. The offense drove down the field, but the Vikings did a good job of holding them to field goals, instead of touchdowns. You can’t expect that lack of production on weekly basis.
And while the Saints defense allowed the Vikings to carve them up, I still believe it’s better than what it showed in week 1.
You’re getting seven points for a New Orleans home game. In the last two seasons, the Saints have lost by more than seven points only twice at home — both times to Detroit.
Take all the points you can get. — Go Against The Chalk with New Orleans
Houston (+6.5) at Cincinnati
Somebody believes in the Bengals far more than I do.
Both teams stumbled out of the game in week 1, looking horrible in the process, especially on offense. The NFL is a week-to-week league, so both teams aren’t as bad as they looked in the opener.
And the Texans are pretty much the same team we saw have the best defense in the NFL in 2016 and made the Divisional round of the playoffs. This team still has talent. The game against Jacksonville got sideways and the offense turned the ball over too many times, allowing the Jaguars either short fields or touchdown returns to reach the final score.
That won’t happen this week. The Bengals are a shell of their former selves. The offense didn’t generate anything in week 1 and that will continue for the remainder of the season. The offensive line is bad and the defense has lost its dominating flavor. The Bengals have lost their best assistant coaches over the years. That seems to be having an effect on both sides of the ball.
And I know people will hold on to the Thursday night football curse of road teams competing. It’s more difficult on the road team, but some road teams do compete well. The Texans will have the motivation to compete and they have better talent, too.
And I’m getting almost a touchdown. Thank you overreacting public. — Go Against The Chalk with Houston
Philadelphia (+5.5) at Kansas City
A lot of the early handicapping is on the belief in certain teams. I believe in the Eagles. And I’m not sold on the Chiefs being this unstoppable force that we saw in week 1.
Alex Smith has never shown that kind of quarterback play as an NFL player and we have more than a decade of evidence. Something tells me he was in the right place at the right time, which won’t be the same case in week 2.
Kansas City wins games, but they do it with a solid defense and a dink and dunk style on offense. The Chiefs ran away with the game in the second half in week 1, but two of those touchdowns were plays of more than 70 yards. I can’t expect that to happen from a team that has never showed that big-play ability.
The Eagles should be a contender for the playoffs, with Carson Wentz improving and more weapons on the outside. Philadelphia showed toughness in week 1 on both sides of the ball, forcing the Redskins to finish drives, instead of giving up the big play.
This game will be close, and even if the Chiefs win, I’ll still take the points. — Go Against The Chalk with Philadelphia
