The 2017 season has so far been split down the middle for favorites and underdogs. Fifteen favorites have covered this season, while 15 have failed to cover.
This week, I’m favoring the underdogs over the favorites. There’s some great value with the underdogs, but there should be some favorites that slip away with covers. Here’s the three week 3 NFL favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 4-2 ATS this season
Overall: 6-5-1 ATS
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Bills are getting too much value in this spot.
Buffalo’s offense is horrendous. They couldn’t move the ball in week 2 against Carolina and weren’t great in a week 1 win at home against the New York Jets. How do we believe the Bills can compete against a Denver defense that continues to be thorn in the opposition’s side?
The Broncos can rush the passer and is once again a top-five defense in the NFL. Most importantly, the Broncos are so good against the run, it neutralized Dallas’ rushing attack in week 2. That poses a problem for a Bills offense unable to throw the football.
Denver’s offense isn’t as good as it showed in week 2, but it’s still good enough to score enough points to run away with this one. Don’t take too much from last week’s inspired effort by the Bills defense. Buffalo was facing its head coach’s former team. Watch for that emotion to disappear, allowing the Broncos to win this one by double-digits. — Go Chalk with Denver
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
I’m surprised we’re getting this small of a number with Pittsburgh.
I would have thought the Bears’ performance in week 2 was enough for this number to possibly reach double-digits. But the betting public and oddsmakers may be stuck on the week 1 performance, when the Bears couldn’t punch in a late score to defeat Atlanta.
If the Steelers play like they’ve played so far this season, this will be too many points to give up. But I’m speculating a better product out of the Steelers in week 3. Pittsburgh’s talent level is far advanced compared to Chicago’s. The offense should continue to get better as Le’Veon Bell gets more reps. The offense was stagnant last week and didn’t look great in week 1. I’ll chalk that up to rust and a solid defensive effort by Minnesota in week 2.
I’m expecting more out of this Pittsburgh team, which has shown the ability to be a fast, athletic defense. The defense should stymie the Bears early and often, opening up more opportunities for the offense. Look for the Steelers to get back on track offensively, giving way to a win by at least two touchdowns. — Go Chalk with Pittsburgh
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14)
This goes against pretty much everything I stand for in handicapping, but I’ll wear the knee-jerk crown for this week. Yes, I was picking the Saints covering at home against New England last week, calling for the end of the Patriots dominance.
That didn’t exactly happen, despite my continued fears regarding New England’s walking wounded among their wide receivers. But, the Texans are terrible against the Patriots, losing the last three matchups in the previous two years by a combined 88-22. I consider this game as the real home opener for the Patriots after being embarrassed at home during week 1.
New England also got some good news when Rob Gronkowski, Dont’a Hightower and Danny Amendola practiced this week. This game just sounds like a blowout, especially with the Texans bringing an offense on the road for a second consecutive week that can’t move the ball.
Deshaun Watson may be a good quarterback at some point, but now’s not the time. The Texans had the best defense in the league last year statistically and still gave up a combined 61 points in two games against the Patriots. New England is no stranger to big spreads, but that still hasn’t stopped them. The Patriots are only one year removed from going 14-3 against the spread as a favorite. That dominance continues in week 3. — Go Chalk with New England
