Week 2 was a tough week.
It was so tough, that in the Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest, featuring my below .500 overall record, the top five consensus picks in week 2 went 0-5 against the spread.
The first few weeks are always a difficult transition for teams and handicappers. Eventually the odds will adjust, creating more opportunities. For now, we’re still finding out which teams are for real, and which are pretenders.
My underdogs haven’t been bad this season, so here’s my three favorite underdogs in the week 3 NFL picks to cover the spread.
Overall: 5-6-1 ATS
SuperContest: 4-5-1 ATS (4.5 points)
Underdogs: 3-2-1 ATS
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3)
Aaron Rodgers is really good. I get that. But he’s basically playing on one leg.
And it’s increasingly clear that the Packers’ roster is terrible without Rodgers. Defensively, there’s still issues. Green Bay is allowing 4.6 yards per rush and is giving up more yards per play than last season at 5.8.
The new-found defense we thought we saw in week 1 against Chicago may have been a mirage, since the Bears still look weak on the offensive side of the ball.
Meanwhile, Washington looked bad in week 2 at home against an Indianapolis team that we’re not sure what we’re seeing. The Redskins couldn’t run the ball, forcing that offense into a shell of its week 1 self.
However, the Redskins should be able to run the ball better against Green Bay in week 3, thus allowing this offense to generate more points. I think we’re overvaluing the Packers based on the mystique. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington
San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Let’s pump the brakes slightly on the Kansas City hype-train.
The Chiefs have been the best offensive team in the NFL through the first two weeks. The week 2 win at Pittsburgh, after having to travel to Los Angeles in week 1, was a surprise. But we shouldn’t overlook the defensive effort.
The Chiefs built a 21-0 lead in week 2 against Pittsburgh, only to see the Steelers tie the game at 21 points apiece.
Kansas City had similar problems in week 1 against the Chargers.
The 49ers are going to be able to run the football, which should keep this offense off the field. San Francisco is averaging an NFL-best 5.3 yards per rush and I trust Jimmy Garoppolo to keep the chains moving on crucial third downs. This feels like a field-goal game. Kansas City should win, but the betting public is going overboard with the Chiefs at this spread. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)
Maybe I should start fading the Cardinals, but I can’t ignore this overreach.
The Bears offense is terrible. Seattle’s defense isn’t the unit it once was, and the Bears did their best to give that game away on Monday night. Had it not been for a fourth-quarter pick-six, we could be having a completely different discussion about the Bears.
Chicago is averaging just 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 30th in the NFL, just ahead of Arizona’s anemic offense. The only difference between the offenses, though, is that Chicago has thrown out everything on offense in creativity.
The Cardinals have been very vanilla, meaning that there are opportunities for change. Arizona still has David Johnson in the backfield and Larry Fitzgerald in the wide receiver corps. Those are weapons that will test Chicago’s defense.
I’m not doubting the Bears as a favorite. However, this game shouldn’t be near a touchdown spread. — Go Against The Chalk with Arizona
