Never pick against New England. That’s going to be plastered on my forehead until Tom Brady finally retires.
They’re my Kryptonite. I usually avoid them like the plague, but every time I see a minor weakness, I go all in, only to end up with a major whiff like New Orleans provided in week 2. I still managed to go .500 overall in week 2, even with the Saints and Cowboys being completely outgunned.
I’m still hovering above .500, so here’s to creating some more space between the win/loss record for the season. This is the week 3 NFL underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 2-3-1 ATS
Overall: 6-5-1 ATS
Miami Dolphins at NY Jets (+6.5)
I could be way off base with this. But follow me for a moment.
Oddsmakers originally pegged this spread at 3.5, only to see the reactionary betting public move it three points. Everyone is so anti-Jets that it’s creating value with the points spread.
We also have a Dolphins team looked as inept on defense in week 2 as it did all of last year. That’s a bad quality to bring on the road, which happens to be back-to-back, cross-country trips to open the season.
I also have a quarterback for Miami that isn’t exactly somebody who I believe can overcome a bad start.
This is the Jets home opener, and rarely will they have much of a home-field advantage this season, but this should qualify. The fans will be hyped for a competitive game, so this could spell trouble for a Dolphins team that has been a bottom-five defense for the last two years.
The Jets are really bad, but the Dolphins shouldn’t be almost a touchdown favorite on their second leg of back-to-back road trips. You have to back a bad team, but you have good value with the Jets. — Go Against The Chalk with NY Jets
New Orleans Saints (+6.5) at Carolina Panthers
I like teams in desperation mode. And the Saints should be primed for that role in week 3.
What has Carolina actually done this season? The Panthers have the best statistical defense in the NFL, but playing Buffalo and San Francisco may not be a great measuring stick for success. The Bills are slightly behind the Jets in tank mode, especially on the offensive side of the ball, while the 49ers are coming off a campaign where they won two games.
Meanwhile, New Orleans had a Monday Night Football opener against a playoff-contender in Minnesota and then had to face New England, after the Patriots were embarrassed on national television.
New Orleans won’t bring much of a defense, but I’m not sure if the Panthers can get into the end zone. It’s been a chore so far this season and if the Saints can bend, but not break, this has the makings of an upset.
I’m not sold on that revamped Panthers defense being the statistical monster it’s been in the opening two weeks. This is another game where people are overvaluing one team based on incomplete results. — Go Against The Chalk with New Orleans
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1)
What world am I living in when the Browns can be favorites on the road?
Am I supposed to believe the Browns are going to win in the midst of back-to-back road games without their No. 1 wide receiver? The public is overreacting to the Colts’ bad start and how hard the Browns try.
Cleveland is going to be better in 2017. They have more talent, but it’s still very young. And I’m having to back DeShone Kizer on the road after getting beat up against Baltimore last week.
I’m not buying it.
The Colts aren’t good either, but Jacoby Brissett is better than Kizer. And this week offers him even more time to get prepared in that offense.
The defense made some strides in week 2 for the Colts and I just can’t see the Browns doing much through the air without Corey Coleman. The Colts have actually been pretty good against the run, even in their rout against the Los Angeles Rams earlier this season.
Without much of a run game, the Browns can’t live up to the hype. — Go Against The Chalk with Indianapolis
