Yuck.
That’s about all I can say about my college football prognosticating so far this season. Two one-win weeks will make that overall record look pretty bad, but there’s still hope.
It’s early and teams are now settling in to conference play. Here’s my favorite six bets for the week 4 college football picks.
Overall: 5-13 ATS
Eastern Michigan at San Diego State (-12)
I’ll stick with the team that got me my only victory last week. The Aztecs beat Arizona State straight up as an underdog last week and the winning should continue in a big way in week 4.
Eastern Michigan is much better than last year, but this isn’t a good matchup. San Diego State can run the football with high efficiency. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, can’t stop anybody, especially on the ground.
Eastern Michigan is allowing 7.2 yards per play, ranking 114th in college football.
The Aztecs should be able to control the ball and pull away late in this one. — Go Chalk with San Diego State
TCU at Texas (+3.5)
Texas is finding its groove.
The Longhorns beat up on an overrated USC team in week 3, and finally, after more than a year of waiting, it appears the Longhorns are starting to find some rhythm.
Both are similar in how they approach the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. But what I saw out of TCU last week against a quality Ohio State opponent was a bunch of tricks and gimmicks. TCU knew it couldn’t beat the Buckeyes.
The talent level is still not where it needs to be for the Horned Frogs, so I’m giving the talent edge to the Longhorns. Texas will continue to improve and should win this one outright. — Go Against The Chalk with Texas
Stanford (-2) at Oregon
Stanford is just so strong up front on the offensive side of the ball, I’m not sure when the Ducks will even have the ball.
The Cardinal are overwhelming teams up front, averaging 6.2 yards per play, while also only allowing 4.4 yards per play to opposing offenses.
Stanford is one of the most balanced teams in the country, going against an Oregon squad that I’m not sure we exactly know who they are. The three opponents so far for Oregon have been Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State.
The two teams that are actually FBS — Bowling Green and San Jose State — are ranked 125th and 130th in yards per play. If you’r checking at home, there’s only 130 FBS programs.
We don’t know anything about the Ducks. I’m taking the team we know is good and that’s Stanford. — Go Chalk with Stanford
Michigan State (-5.5) at Indiana
Eventually Michigan State is going to pan out for me.
It’s been a slow start to the season for the Spartans, but after a week off, I anticipate this experience-laden team will be ready to go.
That spells trouble for Indiana.
The Spartans have experience all over the field and got a little reset with an early week off in the season. Indiana has looked good this season, but against competition that is difficult to gauge.
The Hoosiers will compete, but Michigan State should pull away in the fourth quarter. — Go Chalk with Michigan State
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+2.5)
I don’t get why we believe South Carolina is going to repeat its performance from a year ago.
The offense is bad. Against decent competition, this team can’t move the ball. And Vanderbilt will offer some resistance. Vanderbilt ranks 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.2.
South Carolina isn’t the same team it was a year ago. And even that team didn’t hold a large talent edge over the Commodores. Vanderbilt has some momentum and has a defense good enough to keep South Carolina from scoring.
This line is moving in the direction of Vanderbilt for a reason. — Go Against The Chalk with Vanderbilt
Buffalo (-5.5) at Rutgers
Life is not going to be good for Rutgers.
It’s been a tough few weeks for the Scarlet Knights, losing in big ways to Ohio State and Kansas. Now, they return home to face one of the better MAC teams in Buffalo.
The Bison can move the ball. That’s a problem for a Rutgers team that hasn’t shown much on the defensive side of the ball yet this season. Rutgers is giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense, good enough to be ranked 103rd in the nation.
The bad news keeps coming for Rutgers when it loses to Buffalo. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
