Of all the bad things that happened in my handicapping life in week 4, my NFL underdogs actually weren’t bad.
The Browns laid down and died, but Philadelphia and San Francisco were solid enough on the road to get me to 2-1 ATS with my dogs.
This week offers up a nice reprieve from the big spreads, so it’s basically about picking winners.
Here’s my three favorite week 5 NFL underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 7-4-1 ATS
Overall: 12-11-1 ATS
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
San Francisco is providing great value on a weekly basis. The 49ers are 3-1 ATS this season, and have done so against four teams at .500 or better.
Don’t be fooled by the 0-4 record. This team has played opponents tough enough in the last three weeks that it shouldn’t be an underdog against a Colts team that is lacking the personnel to be a favorite.
I don’t mind Jacoby Brissett, but his offensive line is a mess, and the defense can’t stop anybody. The Colts are second-worst in the NFL in total defense, allowing almost 400 yards per game.
And teams aren’t only moving the football, they’re scoring at will. The Colts have allowed 34 points per game, the most in the NFL through four weeks.
This will be a nice break for a 49ers offense that has squared off against Carolina and Seattle, two top-10 defenses, and an Arizona defense that has historically been pretty good. Even the Rams, which aren’t statistically great, can still play some defense when it counts.
San Francisco has better personnel and it will show in this game. The traveling from west to east concerns me a little, but not enough to overshadow the disparity in talent. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+3)
I promise this isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to last week’s massacre in Houston. This is about a Miami team that is better than they’ve looked in the first few weeks of the season.
In one of the cruelest NFL schedules of all time, Miami has been on the road for every game since week 3 of the preseason on Aug. 24. The Dolphins have been in Philadelphia, Minnesota, off for week 1, so they spent the week away from Miami because of Hurricane Irma, at New York and then in London.
I don’t care who you are, that is bound to take a toll. This team is better than the product we’ve seen against New York and New Orleans in the past two weeks, and it will show in week 5.
What also helps is the rush defense is actually pretty good, allowing less than 80 yards per game. That is basically the only thing Tennessee can do right now anyway, and the Titans are in the middle of back-to-back road games, and could be without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota.
We’re valuing Tennessee too high in this position and overlooking Miami’s treacherous road to start the season. Miami will bounce back and will look more like the playoff team we saw from a year ago. — Go Against The Chalk with Miami
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
I still like Philadelphia overall more than Arizona. But this seems like too high of a number for a team that has been lucky to escape the last two weeks against winless teams.
Philadelphia is a one-dimensional team going against a defense that has been historically pretty good against the pass. I don’t believe they’re as good as they have been, but the unit is still good enough that this game should be close.
And despite my distaste for Arizona, they’re 2-2 and been in every game this season. Even the games they’ve lost, the Cardinals have been close for three quarters, against Detroit and Dallas. The problems in those games was a lack of offense when they needed it.
Philadelphia hasn’t done much against the pass — the one thing Arizona does slightly well on offense — so that could come back and haunt the Eagles. I have to back another west coast team traveling east, so that does concern me a little, but this is just too high of a spread to pass up.
The matchup works in Arizona’s favor. Back the Cardinals. — Go Against The Chalk with Arizona
