For how bad I was in the early part of the college football season, things have taken a dramatic turn.
I’m 10-2 against the spread during the last two weeks, lifting my record to almost .500. That just shows how bad I was in the early part of the season.
Here’s my week 6 college football picks, featuring my favorite six games.
Overall: 14-16 ATS
Arizona State at Colorado (-3)
I’m not overblowing the early season victory by Arizona State against Michigan State. Everyone else is going to do that, but I’m not.
So that’s why I love only having to give away a field goal in this contest.
The Sun Devils aren’t ready to go on the road and win a game like this. The Sun Devils are traditionally not a good road team, and they square off against a Buffaloes team that is playing really well at the moment.
Both teams are similar in their approaches, with solid defenses, to go along with better-than-advertised offenses. However, with Colorado at home, this should be more than a three-point advantage. — Go Chalk with Colorado
Iowa (-7) at Minnesota
I’ll join the betting public in hopping on the Iowa bandwagon.
Iowa is really good at one aspect of football. The defense is one of the better units in the country. The Hawkeyes allow just 4.2 yards per play, tied for the fourth-best mark in college football.
The offense is not as good, but it knows its role. The Hawkeyes will wear down opponents, force several punts and by the end of the game, will win by double-digits.
Minnesota ranks 109th in yards per play on the offensive side of the ball. That’s not good enough to move it against the Hawkeyes. — Go Chalk with Iowa
Boston College (+6) at North Carolina State
We’re giving up on Boston College too prematurely. The loss two weeks ago to Purdue was easy to see. The Boilermakers were better than their record indicated and the Eagles were easy targets.
Boston College had a nice bounce-back win against Temple last week, where the offense got back into shape. This team is already solid enough on the defensive side of the ball, so it was nice to see the offense show glimmers of hope last week.
The Wolfpack haven’t played anybody yet, so be careful hitching your wagon to that ride. This game will be closer than the line indicates. — Go Against The Chalk with Boston College
Illinois at Rutgers (+5.5)
This could be a death sentence. Or it could be a crafty move.
Rutger is terrible. I get that. Illinois is pretty terrible, too, though.
With Rutgers, I get more than a field goal, at home and with an actual realization that this could be the only other chance to win a game this season.
The motivation should be high for the Scarlet Knights. For Illinois, everyone believes they should win this game, so there’s plenty of pressure on the Fighting Illini to perform on the road as a decent-sized favorite.
I’m not sure Illinois should be favored over any team by that much. I’ll take the points in this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Rutgers
Northwestern at Michigan State (-10)
Something feels a bit odd about this spread.
At first glance, it would appear ridiculous that the Spartans would be favored by this much. But when you factor in a heartbreaking loss last week to Michigan by Northwestern and the injuries piling up even more for the Wildcats, this makes sense.
The Spartans are an experience-laden, better team than the Wildcats. Northwestern will be one-dimensional, and with the chances of rain, that will pose a problem with its passing attack.
The Spartans will flex some muscle in this game and will win by double-digits. — Go Chalk with Michigan State
Buffalo (-7.5) at Central Michigan
I’ll dip into some MAC action and back the far better offensive team in this one.
I had success with Buffalo two weeks ago when it throttled Rutgers, so I’ll stay with them this week. Buffalo averages 5.9 yards per play, ranking 45th in college football. Central Michigan averages 4.1 yards per play, ranking 125th out of 130 teams in college football.
Central Michigan’s defense isn’t good enough to make up for its lack of offense. Don’t fall in the trap of giving Central Michigan too much of an advantage for being at home. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
