We’re still above .500 in the NFL Lockness Monsters, but we’re barely holding on after last week. We didn’t register the best showing last week, but we’re back at it in December, where the playoff picture should begin to show.
Here’s our five best ATS bets for week 13 in the NFL season.
Last week: 1-4 ATS
Season: 31-27-2 ATS
Dallas (+4.5) at Washington
We know that everyone has given up on the Cowboys this season. That’s fine with us as handicappers.
The Cowboys may not have Tony Romo, but Dallas is still one of the best teams in December in the past few years. We know that record is generally a Romo record, but we’re not giving it away as only an individual mark.
The quarterback is only one position. Jason Garrett has shown the ability to perform in December and we believe he will have that quality success again, despite the absence of Romo. Even without Romo, the Cowboys were still competing. They just had a tough time finishing games.
The Redskins own a bottom-five rush defense, which should play into the Cowboys’ gameplan. Dallas won’t pass often, so we’re taking the points, and actually believe Dallas should win this Monday night showdown. –– Go against the chalk with Dallas
Carolina at New Orleans (+7)
We’re not sure why we like this other than a hunch.
The Panthers have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season. They’re tough on the run and have done enough on offense to move the ball consistently against all opponents.
And against the Saints, offenses are usually at their best. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and many would predict the Panthers to take full advantage of the Saints.
However, Carolina is in the midst of playing back-t0-back road games and New Orleans has already stopped one undefeated streak this season against Atlanta. The Panthers are coming off an emotional win last week at Dallas, so we don’t believe they will have the same fire against the Saints, which could prove to be detrimental to the Panthers.
Drew Brees should get back on track at home and make this game much closer than the experts believe. — Go against the chalk with New Orleans
San Francisco at Chicago (-7.5)
We didn’t even believe we’d like the Bears in this position.
But with the way San Francisco has been on the road, we can’t ignore this game.
Chicago owns the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing 214.5 yards per game. The Bears don’t really sack the quarterback, with only 22 sacks total this season, but Chicago does enough to stall drives and limit opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage.
Teams are hitting on 60.9 percent of passes against Chicago, the 10th-lowest percentage in the NFL.
That should be enough of a reason to go with the Bears against San Francisco this week. The 49ers haven’t been horrible since Blaine Gabbert took over the quarterback duties. However, he still isn’t even an average NFL quarterback.
And San Francisco’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL. We hate the 49ers going on the road this season, especially in the early afternoon window. San Francisco has played two games in the early afternoon window in a different time zone.
It’s lost by a combined 46 points in those games. Don’t think too hard on this game. Go with the Bears. — Go chalk with Chicago
Denver (-4.5) at San Diego
The spread is less than touchdown in this game? Sign us up.
The Broncos are by far the better team in this game. The Chargers are facing the NFL’s best pass defense without a receiver that would be a starter on most NFL teams. And the offensive line is a mess in San Diego.
So why are the Chargers less than a touchdown underdog against the Broncos? We believe oddsmakers and the betting public are downplaying that victory last week by Denver, and believe a letdown will occur this week against the Chargers.
But don’t be so confident. The Broncos are finding their running game, and the Chargers have one of the worst running games in the NFL. That will be significant against the Broncos, since Denver owns the best passing defense in the NFL.
The Chargers won’t be able to pass, and the Broncos should cover this by more than a touchdown. –– Go chalk with Denver
Baltimore at Miami (-4)
We know the popular choice would be to take the Ravens. Baltimore showed plenty of spirit last week against the Browns and won on a blocked field goal.
But let’s take a look at that game. The Ravens scored on two special teams touchdowns and were doing it on the road against possibly the worst team in the NFL.
And this game is at Miami on a short week for Baltimore. The Ravens are fielding a team full of backups, while the Dolphins should be motivated enough to beat a team that has less talent.
The Dolphins are changing offensive coordinators again, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem in this contest. Go with the Dolphins against a bad secondary, and give away the four points. –– Go chalk with Miami
