We whiffed this past week with the Chicago Bears. Who would have thought the San Francisco 49ers would find a pulse with Blaine Gabbert?
This has been a difficult year for the Survivor Pool contestants. Once again, big home favorites were on the wrong side of the scoreboard this week.
Five games featured spreads of a touchdown or more in week 13. Two of the five ended in straight up losses for the favorite. In three of the five, the underdog covered.
That continues a trend that has hampered Survivor Pools all year. The Sleeper Picks, much like this past week’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, have often been a better bet than the actual pick. With week 14 upon us, and few teams remaining to take, here’s our Best Bet and Sleeper Pick.
Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs
We wondered how the San Diego Chargers could only be 4.5-point underdogs this past week to Denver. Maybe oddsmakers were drinking the Chargers’ Kool-Aid after defeating Jacksonville, but we weren’t buying it.
The Chargers have been ravaged by injuries, downgrading Phillip Rivers’ ability to move the ball down the field. We discussed this last week, but Rivers has made his money this year by playing bad pass defenses. He’s a different quarterback against top-tier pass defenses.
After this past week’s setback, Rivers is now 0-4 against top-10 pass defenses, and only gets passing yardage during garbage time. The Chiefs will represent another top-10 defense that Rivers will face, and if it’s anything like last time against Kansas City, Rivers will be in for a long day.
During Rivers’ last time facing the Chiefs, he mustered 178 yards passing and one interception. The Chargers don’t have a running game, and the Chiefs are just plain hot.
Since losing to Minnesota on Oct. 18, Kansas City is 6-0 straight up and against the spread, and the games haven’t been all that close. The Chiefs have amassed five double-digit victories during that span, and they’re doing it on both sides of the ball, limiting the opposition to less than two touchdowns in four of the six wins.
Offensively, they’re moving the ball with the running game mixed in with a better-than-advertised passing game, going for 29 or more points in five of the wins.
The Chargers are still giving it the old college try, but with so many injuries, they should be an easy out.
Sleeper Pick
New York Jets
Tennessee will pick up some momentum after finally winning at home for the first time in a year, but don’t buy the hype.
This is still a team without the ability to stop decent offenses and without a running game.
We understand the Titans ran all over Jacksonville on Sunday, but the Jaguars have progressively gotten worse on defense, allowing more than 100 yards in two of the previous three games. We’re still not sold on the Titans’ defense, which doesn’t really stop the run or the pass anymore.
That will be a tough way to play on the road against the Jets, which are having more success with their passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is utilizing New York’s weapons during this two-game win streak.
And the defense showed some resilience this past week against the New York Giants without Darrelle Revis. If Revis returns that will strengthen the Jets’ defense even more. Without him, we still believe New York will have enough to stifle the Titans.
Be careful
Cincinnati Bengals
We’re as excited as you are about the Bengals. But we’re also excited about the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers were the better team two weeks ago at Seattle. That’s the ceiling for the Steelers, which is good enough to beat the Bengals.
Cincinnati has several weapons, but when these two teams play, it’s not a forgone conclusion which team will come out on top as the victor.
With the Steelers’ passing game running on all cylinders, we don’t want to risk the Bengals as a pick. If you’ve saved Cincinnati for this time of year, don’t waste them this week. This game is too much of a toss-up.
