We began the playoff push with a bad Saturday, only to make up for it on Sunday with a perfect record.
That Houston pick was atrocious, but those Green Bay and Minnesota picks were on the money. Don’t get us started on the Pittsburgh game, which was cover for the majority of the game until the final minute.
There’s not much time left to make money in the NFL. Here’s our best bets for the Divisional weekend.
Last week: 2-2 ATS
Overall: 47-40-2 ATS
Kansas City (+5.5) at New England
This will likely come back to bite us, but we’re finally giving in on the fact that the Chiefs are a good team.
We’ve been extremely slow to the hopping on the Kansas City bandwagon, and it’s been rolling against the number for the latter part of the season. Since Oct. 25, the Chiefs are undefeated straight up and 8-3 against the spread.
It’s about time we wake up to the Chiefs.
Kansas City has been the best defensive team down the stretch, limiting the opposition in the running and passing games. Teams can’t seem to score against Kansas City, as the Chiefs have allowed more than two touchdowns only three times in the last 11 games.
The Patriots have shown the ability to pass the ball this season, but they will have to do that this week against a top-10 pass defense. The Chiefs allowed only 6.6 yards per completion in the regular season, the third-best mark in the NFL.
And while the Patriots have the experience, we still don’t know what to expect from them based on injuries. New England was by far the best team in the AFC at one point in the season. However, injuries have decimated its roster, especially its offensive line, which will lead to more problems in this game.
The Chiefs ranked fourth in sacks in the regular season with 47. That pressure will hinder Tom Brady’s ability to move the chains, and this game will come down to the final minutes. — Go against the chalk with Kansas City
Green Bay at Arizona (-7)
We loved Green Bay last week. Give us Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins, and we’re siding with Rodgers all day.
This week, though, we’re not looking back at the last time these two teams played for our answer on which team will cover. In the NFL, that’s meaningless. Just look at last week when the Vikings should have beaten the Seahawks, after being beaten by 31 points in the regular season.
We’re looking at this game in terms of the quality of the teams.
It was a good win for the Packers last week against the Redskins. But don’t try to explain it anymore than that. Green Bay’s offensive struggles aren’t completely fixed, as Washington entered that game with a bottom-10 pass defense.
The Redskins also beat up on a bunch of sisters of the poor during the regular season, so when it was time to face an above-average team, they folded.
Arizona is a far different matchup. The Cardinals will bump Green Bay’s wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, forcing a unit that had trouble getting open all year, into a more difficult situation. Arizona also has an offense that can keep Rodgers off the field for large chunks at a time.
Carson Palmer has the weapons and a running game to move the chains consistently. The Packers could fall into the same trap that plagued them at the end of the season and that would mean several bad offensive possessions.
We get the Cardinals with plenty of rest, while Green Bay is playing on a short week in back-to-back road games. The Packers don’t have the team capable of pulling off another upset against a much better team. This one is over by the fourth quarter. — Go chalk with Arizona
Seattle at Carolina (-3)
This game is a difficult one to predict. On one hand, Seattle has the experience to be able to go on the road three times and win another conference crown.
On the other hand, Seattle looked awful last week and shouldn’t even be here. But that mindset could loosen them up enough to beat the better team in Carolina.
Don’t put the big bucks on this game. Carolina has a solid team. The defense was one of the best this season and Cam Newton lit up the scoreboard with his feet and arm.
We like the amount of rest the Panthers got between the end of the regular season and today, but that could lead to some rust for the Panthers.
This should be a defensive struggle, so it will likely come down to which quarterback can limit turnovers and keep the chains moving.
Both quarterbacks have handled the ball well in the latter stages of the regular season, but we like Newton to showcase the better skills at the position.
Wilson and his Seahawk teammates obviously didn’t want to be out there last week in the cold of Minnesota. Maybe that shows their lack of motivation this season that seems to have hurt them during the regular season.
We’re going with Carolina to have more edge than Seattle. The Panthers should feel disrespected with so many people picking the Seahawks, so we’re going with the team with more motivation. – Go chalk with Carolina
Pittsburgh (+7) at Denver
We’re not sure if the Steelers will have anyone actually playing, but we can’t ignore Peyton Manning’s inability to do anything in the playoffs.
And that was when was actually good.
Manning’s playoff record is 11-13. Some people gloss over that, but with that big of a sample size, we can’t just look past that number. Something happens to Manning during the playoffs and we can’t imagine this week will be any different.
Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, is 11-5 in the playoffs. He’s nursing an injury, but Big Ben is a tough guy, so we don’t anticipate that will bother him much.
The Broncos will likely rely heavily on the running game, which would actually be the wrong thing to do against the Steelers. Pittsburgh was fifth-best against the run during the regular season.
Against the pass, they were third-worst.
We know the Steelers played a physical, brutal battle against the Bengals last week. That’s OK. Pittsburgh has dealt with injuries in stride all year and this week shouldn’t be any different.
And we’re getting an entire touchdown against Manning in the playoffs. Sign us up. — Go against the chalk with Pittsburgh
