The AFC South is going to be better. That’s a bad sign for Indianapolis, which hasn’t gotten much better despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston have the personnel to be better this year. The Colts have Andrew Luck…and that’s about it. This division should play much differently than many anticipated in the previous few years.
Here’s my look at the AFC South. Last season, I was 1-3 in win totals for the division.
Houston Texans
Over/under 8.5 (-115 o/-115 u)
This is who we’ve decided that Houston will be from now until the end of Bill O’Brien’s tenure. The team is good enough each year to win eight games. With a few balls bouncing their way, they’ll be over that number. If a few bounce the other way, they could be a few games under that number.
With this team, I’m siding with the over. The defense is pretty much intact and returns its best player J.J. Watt. Offensively, they can’t get much worse than having Brock Osweiler at the helm, so even if Deshaun Watson starts and isn’t great, it shouldn’t hold them back too much.
The receivers are still really good and I love Lamar Miller as a workhorse, sleeper option in fantasy football. The balls will bounce the right way this year. — Verdict: Over
Indianapolis Colts
Over/under 8.5 (-120 o/-110 u)
This is a hard one to fathom. Just a few years ago, the Colts owned one of the highest regular season win total predictions in the NFL. But failure in the front office is holding back a Colts team that is deficient on its offensive line.
The Colts didn’t do a great job with personnel during the Peyton years either, but it at least gave Manning a solid offensive line to protect him while he picked apart opposing defenses. That should be the blueprint for Luck, but it hasn’t happened yet. Owner Jim Irsay says the offensive line is fixed. I’m not buying it. — Verdict: Under
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 6.5 (-130 o/Even u)
This is one of my favorite picks of the season. Jacksonville is much better than people are giving them credit for.
The defense was one of the better units in the NFL last season and should be once again this season. The defense has added enough weapons during the last few years that this could be a top-three unit in 2017. That should help the offense not have to press so much, as it did two years ago.
Blake Bortles isn’t a savior, but with the personnel around him, he should have the opportunity to guide this team to eight, maybe even nine wins. He doesn’t have to be a hero and I don’t like his chances in fantasy football. But as a game manager with a solid defense, I like the Jaguars to make a run at the playoffs. — Verdict: Over
Tennessee Titans
Over/under 9 (-110 o/-120 u)
That’s a big number for a team that won seven of its nine games by one possession last year.
Tennessee had the right recipe to win games last year. They ran the ball effectively and were surprisingly a good defense at stretches of the season. But, the Titans were still not very good at stopping the pass, and that could come to haunt them this year if we’re to believe they’re going to take the next step.
I’m predicting a much better AFC South, so it’s not a given that Jacksonville is an easy two wins on the schedule. Tennessee will be right around the eight-win mark, but I’m not banking on 10 wins. — Verdict: Under
