The biggest lesson of the NFL season’s week 2 was to not overreact after one week of a sample size.
Some of the same teams that made the list as the best teams against the spread last week, like Tennessee and San Francisco, crashed back to reality in week 2 with big losses straight up and against the spread.
Here’s a list of teams that have succeeded and missed the mark against the spread this season.
On the mark
Arizona Cardinals, +16.5 average ATS
Oddsmakers must have not watched last season before Carson Palmer was injured.
The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the NFL last season before quarterback problems hindered the season. Now, the Cardinals are once again looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, and oddsmakers have been slow to recognize Arizona’s ability to win and cover the spread.
The Cardinals are winning by an average of 18.5 points per game and are averaging a plus-16.5 points per game against the spread. Last week’s victory against Chicago helped, with the Cardinals winning by 25 points as a 2.5-point favorite.
This week in an early line, Arizona is a six-point favorite at home against San Francisco. That would be the highest spread so far in a Cardinals game this season.
Cincinnati Bengals, +9.2 average ATS
Cincinnati has looked good this season, much like it has during the past several years.
During this two-game run, though, with Cincinnati undefeated straight up and against the spread, Andy Dalton has been a big reason for the good start. Dalton has a quarterback rating of 120.3 with five touchdown passes and 483 yards passing.
If Dalton continues on that streak, the Bengals may be unbeatable.
Most of the big number against the spread is due to Cincinnati’s 20-point opening week win against Oakland. But Cincinnati took care of business Sunday against San Diego, covering the spread by 1.5 points.
This week, the Bengals are underdogs for the first time this season. Baltimore will host Cincinnati and is currently a three-point favorite.
Off the mark
Chicago Bears, -12.5 average ATS
Chicago hasn’t put up much of a fight this season. And it’s not as if the Bears have been on the road to open the 2015 season. Both losses have been at home, and the most recent loss was an embarrassment to Arizona.
That defense that struggled through 2014 still doesn’t look good. The Bears haven’t given up many total yards, allowing the seventh-least total yards in the NFL through two weeks. However, Chicago’s defense hasn’t faced many plays from scrimmage.
The Bears are allowing 5.9 yards per play, the 10th-worst average in the NFL. Chicago is even worse on third down as a defense, allowing opponents to convert 58 percent of third conversions, second-worst in the NFL.
The season doesn’t get any better from here. Chicago travels to Seattle this Sunday, where it is already a 14-point underdog, the second double-digit underdog of the young NFL season. Chicago is hoping for a similar result as the only other double-digit underdog this season, as Tampa Bay defeated New Orleans as a 10-point underdog.
New Orleans Saints, -13.2 average ATS
This isn’t the New Orleans Saints of the mid- to late 2000s.
The offense seems to be stuck in low gear and the defense isn’t making enough stops. New Orleans still ranks in the top-10 for yards per game, but its per-play average is stuck near the bottom of the NFL at 5.3 yards per play.
Defensively, the Saints rank toward the bottom in yards allowed, and once again that per-play average is hindering the Saints from stopping teams. New Orleans is allowing a NFL-high of 6.6 yards per play.
And while the schedule did include a trip to Arizona, the Saints also dropped its home opener against Tampa Bay in week 2. That’s a troubling trend for New Orleans. The Saints were 3-5 straight up last season at home and 2-6 against the spread.
The Saints will look to rebound this week on the road against Carolina as 3.5-point underdogs.
