We kept going in the survivor pools last week with a last-second field goal aided by a penalty.
The San Diego Chargers didn’t quite do what we believed it would do, but it got the job done against the Cleveland Browns by three points.
We’ve hit three of the first four weeks in survivor pools, and we’re feeling confident once again this week.
Last week, there weren’t too many surprises, but some survivor pool participants may have taken Arizona to beat St. Louis.
Here’s our best bet for week 5 of the NFL to keep you alive in your survivor pool.
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Best bet
Baltimore Ravens
We’re sticking with the plan to go against the Cleveland Browns.
Sure, we don’t believe the Browns are that bad, compared to some of the other under-achieving NFL squads, but the schedule is rough.
The Browns will travel to Baltimore this weekend for an early afternoon kickoff, after traveling to San Diego last week. We’ve ranted about NFL teams going on the road in back-to-back weeks, and we especially don’t like when teams do this going from coast-to-coast.
Cleveland owns the worst total defense so far this season. The Browns are the worst team against the run and not much better against the pass.
And with its first victory of the season last Thursday, the Ravens should be poised to go on a bit of a roll. After the Browns, the next seven games include home games against San Diego, Jacksonville and St. Louis, and road games against Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland and Miami.
Don’t dismiss Baltimore yet. The Ravens were solid on the ground last week, and we believe the passing game will come along this week. The Ravens are touchdown favorites this week and should not only win straight up, but cover the spread.
Sleeper of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s sleeper bombed in Buffalo. This week, we’ll be bold again, since this is the sleeper pick.
We’re not too high on Jacksonville this week based on the Jaguars now being on the road for three consecutive weeks. Jacksonville played a competitive game last week against Indianapolis; but after watching that game, if the Jaguars couldn’t win that game then it likely will have trouble winning more than a few games all year.
The Colts tried to give away that game last week and still won in overtime.
And we know the Buccaneers struggled last week against Carolina, but the Panthers have a quality defense that slowed down Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston will have growing pains, but the Jaguars pass defense should be soft enough to give him room to work.
The Jaguars allow almost 280 yards per game through the air and that number should help open up the offense for the Buccaneers, which have done well with the run this season.
And let’s face it. There’s likely not another opportunity to take the Buccaneers, so if you’re desperate in week 5, Tampa Bay could pay dividends.
Be careful
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, but this week could be more difficult.
The nation is starting to figure out the Falcons are good, making us leery of the Falcons’ potential. We usually fade the public and after demolishing a bad Houston Texans team last week, it appears everyone is hopping on the Falcons’ bandwagon.
The matchup Sunday against Washington is more difficult than what experts believe. The Redskins have competed well this season and that defense has done a good job of limiting the opposition.
Washington is going to attempt to run the ball and stop the run, and so far in the last two weeks, the Cowboys and the Texans have been unable to stop the Falcons’ rushing attack.
What will Atlanta’s offense look like when a team stops the run? The last time that happened was against the New York Giants, when the Falcons rushed for only 56 yards. During that game, Atlanta entered the fourth quarter down by 10 points.
Last week, we were all over the media darling Oakland Raiders stumbling in our Be Careful section. We’re not guaranteeing a victory for the Redskins, but think twice before picking the Falcons in your survivor pool.
