The NFL hasn’t played a game in more than two months, but that doesn’t mean oddsmakers aren’t changing their tunes on a few teams heading into the 2016 season.
The odds will likely see another makeover when the draft commences this month, too. Thanks to some moves in free agency, oddsmakers have been busy reworking those early lines on what team will be the last standing at the end of the 2016 season.
No matter what has happened during the last two months, New England remains at the top for best odds to win next year’s Super Bowl. The Patriots have improved their standing over the last two months, going from +750 to +600.
Seattle, Green Bay and Carolina continue to trail the Patriots, but are the next-best options, according to oddsmakers. The three NFC teams are going off at +1000. Nothing that happened in free agency altered the minds of oddsmakers when it came to those three teams. Their number has remained consistent in the last two months.
What about the defending Super Bowl champions? The offseason has been tumultuous, much like Denver’s regular season. With the retirement of Peyton Manning and the inability to land a top-notch quarterback in the offseason, the Broncos are staring down the possibility of having an even worse offense next season.
Oddsmakers are taking notice.
Everyone was down on Denver as Super Bowl champions immediately after this past season’s big game. Oddsmakers listed the Broncos at +1400, but the betting public boosted the Broncos to as high as +900.
Now, the Broncos are back down again, this time at +1600, behind the previously mentioned teams and Pittsburgh at +1200. I’m staying way away from Denver this coming season.
Sure, the Broncos won the title in 2015, but this team isn’t built to repeat. The offense isn’t good enough on a week-to-week basis to nab the top seed again in the AFC. This year was an outlier for that conference and I fully expect some teams that were down in 2015, to be better, giving the Broncos far more competition.
While I’m staying away from Denver, there are a couple of teams I like because of their value.
Cincinnati has hovered from +2200 to +2000 since the Super Bowl, and I expect that number to continue to be near that mark. The Bengals should be loaded again offensively, and had it not been for Andy Dalton’s injury late in the season, there’s a good argument to be made that the Bengals would have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl instead of the Broncos.
The pieces are there and everyone will sleep on the Bengals like they do each year. If they remain healthy, the Bengals offer tremendous value as a team poised to compete for a Super Bowl.
In the NFC, watch out for the Minnesota Vikings. I rode Minnesota hard against the spread last season and it paid major dividends. Watch for the experts to once again doubt the Vikings. That will again be a mistake.
The defense makes Minnesota a legitimate contender. If the offense can find a few more weapons on the outside, it can be a nice compliment to the defense. Minnesota is listed at +2000 and it showed last year to be able to compete against the top teams in the NFC.
The Vikings are just a couple of players away from having a breakout season, which makes it imperative to keep an eye on them as Super Bowl contenders.
There are a few teams I hate that the betting public are jumping aboard. The Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders are making their way up the favorites board. The Raiders have jumped from as high as +6600 to +2800, while the Texans have gone from +5000 to +2000, thanks to a few key signings of Lamar Miller and Brock Osweiler. I love Miller (he can be a fantasy star in the right offense), but Osweiler just doesn’t do anything for me.
I get the appreciation for the Texans, but the expectations shouldn’t be so high. I’m not writing in Osweiler as that much of a better option than Brian Hoyer. And while I love Miller, he can’t be considered better than Arian Foster in his prime. And what did the Texans do with Foster in his prime?
They made the playoffs and never advanced to the AFC title game.
Houston can be a playoff team, but I don’t see it making a deep run through the playoffs.
The Raiders will eventually make some noise, but I don’t see this year as being that year. The offense should continue to get better, but if you can’t stop anyone, there’s no room for you at the playoff table. That will be the constant battle for Oakland this season, and while it should win some games, it won’t turn into a solid playoff run.
