When the NFL regular season started, Indianapolis and Philadelphia were considered Super Bowl favorites, based mostly on their performances last year.
Now that the regular season is complete, we now know those were two of the worst futures bets made before the season began.
Here’s a list of the good and bad performances this season.
Bad
Indianapolis Colts
The value wasn’t there, but everyone sure thought the Colts were just going to continue to improve. With an AFC Championship title game appearance last season, it appeared the Colts were a slam-dunk choice to at least reach the playoffs in the weak AFC South.
Oddsmakers set the Colts at +850 to win the Super Bowl this season, tied for the third-best odds at the season’s start. It soon became apparent that those odds were too high.
By the end of September, the Colts were at +1600. They weren’t out of the playoff picture, though, as the AFC South was the worst division in football at the time. However, when the Houston Texans got better, the Colts’ odds diminished, eventually going down to +4000 at the beginning of November.
Indianapolis finished the season at 8-8 overall, well below the over/under of 11 wins, which was tied for the highest over/under in the NFL.
Good
Carolina Panthers
At the season’s beginning, the Panthers were +5000 to win the Super Bowl. By middle October, the Panthers were +300.
Carolina completed the regular season with the best record in the NFL at 15-1, and currently has the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl.
The Panthers’ performance also far exceeded their win totals projection of 8.5 wins.
Bad
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were a hot pick to be a dark horse Super Bowl contender at the beginning of the season.
Philadelphia opened as +850 to win the Super Bowl. By mid-September, that number jumped to +2200. By December, the Eagles were one of the worst picks for the Super Bowl with a shot still at the playoffs at +7500, just a bit better than Indianapolis at +10000.
The Eagles had a tumultuous season, with the firing of head coach Chip Kelly, and the turnover of several players on the roster. The over/under also was set higher than several teams in the NFL at the beginning of the season at nine.
Good
Washington Redskins
If the Redskins win the Super Bowl, their one fanatical fan that placed a bet on them winning the Super Bowl before the season will be very happy after Super Bowl Sunday.
The Redskins actually opened with the third-worst odds to win the Super Bowl at +12500. The only other teams with worse odds were Jacksonville and Tennessee at +20000.
Even if bettors waited to place action on the Redskins, the number would have been even better. In mid-November, the Redskins were at +20000 to win the Super Bowl.
To find a team in the playoffs with better action than that in the history of the NFL is hard to find from mid-November.
By season’s end, the Redskins were +5000 to win the Super Bowl, and although the odds aren’t great to win it all, there’s great value with Washington.
Bad
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas opened the season as +1400 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the sixth-best mark in the NFL.
The Cowboys also were one of only a few teams in the NFL not projected to win 8.5 or 8 games, going off with an over/under of 9.5.
Dallas failed on both fronts, thanks in large part to several injuries that decimated the Cowboys.
Oddsmakers began to lose hope in the Cowboys in mid-October, setting them at +5000 to win the Super Bowl. Romo’s return gave a little hope to the Cowboys toward the end of November at +2500, but after Thanksgiving, with an injured Romo, those odds fell off, going to +10000.
Good
Houston Texans
It’s still a long shot for the Texans to win the Super Bowl, but they’ve been through a rocky road of Super Bowl odds to make it to the playoffs.
The season started with Houston going off at +5000, tied for the 10th-worst odds to win NFL’s top prize.
It got worse from there, though, with Houston going on a major slide in the beginning of the season and going to +15000 in mid-October.
Then, slowly but surely, the Texans started to win games, moving their number slightly better each week, until finally, Houston is almost back to its preseason odds at +6600.
The Texans were among the plethora of teams projected to win eight games, and the Texans squeaked by that number, winning in the final week to earn nine wins this season.
Bad
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were one of the few teams that were predicted to win more than 8.5 games, with nine wins.
It became apparent from the early going that wasn’t going to happen.
The Ravens began the season 1-6 and saw their decent Super Bowl odds of +2000 go down the drain. By mid-October, the Ravens were +50000 to win the Super Bowl, only worse than Jacksonville’s ridiculous +100000 odds (which is interesting to note, since the Jaguars actually moved into a contention for the AFC South crown during a point in the season.)
The Ravens also were decimated by injuries and finished the season far below expectations at 5-11. Nine of Baltimore’s 11 losses were by a touchdown or less, so it will be interesting to see where oddsmakers rank the Ravens next season.
Good
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +350. However, it wasn’t always that way this season.
Arizona began the season +4000, tied with Atlanta, Detroit, New Orleans and San Diego. None of those other teams made the playoffs, while the Cardinals have cruised to a first-round bye.
The Cardinals began to catch momentum in the eyes of oddsmakers at the beginning of November, when they were moved to +800. The odds continued to improve, until resting at +350 in anticipation of the playoffs.
Arizona also blew past its projected win totals, mired in the 8 and 8.5 over/under club.
