The NFL regular season concluded last week, marking the end of an above .500 run for the ATS Lockness Monsters best bets.
Last week was a good microcosm of the season, with some near misses that would have propelled us to an even better week.
However, the week ended with more wins than losses, a common theme for the 2015 season against the spread for Against The Chalk.
It’s playoff time, now, so we’re wiping the slate clean and looking forward to Wild Card weekend, where there’s an astounding three road favorites this week, and a game that has moved to an even spread. We love value and edge, so home underdogs are sounding mighty fine at that moment.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Regular Season: 45-38-2 ATS
Kansas City at Houston (+3.5)
We know how the first game went. We were all over that outcome in week 1.
But these are two completely different teams. The Texans were as bad as almost any team in the beginning, only to find their stride midway through the season.
Kansas City’s run has been well-documented, with the Chiefs winning 10 games in a row. Meanwhile, not to be outdone too badly, the Texans have won seven of their last nine games.
Don’t be too quick in dismissing Houston’s run. In those seven wins, the Texans defeated Cincinnati, the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts, all teams with an 8-8 record or better.
During their 10-game winning streak, the Chiefs have the same number of wins against teams with an 8-8 or better records — Denver, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Two of those three came at home, and while the victory against the Broncos was dominant, it came at a time when Peyton Manning got injured in the game and Denver was attempting to find itself offensively.
Winning 10 games is impressive in today’s NFL, but the combined records of the Chiefs’ opponents during that span was 56-72. That’s not exactly beating up on the top-tier teams in the NFL.
This game is all about defense. The Texans and Chiefs are both top-10 defenses, so it will be difficult for the offenses to move the ball. During their 10-game winning streak, the Chiefs have played only one top-10 defense.
They have, however, faced teams with defenses ranked No. 27, No. 22, No. 21, No. 20, No. 19 and No. 18.
This will be an entirely different story for Kansas City’s offense. The Chiefs aren’t as good as everyone is saying and they’ll be exposed in the Wild Card game. — Go against the chalk with Houston
Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
Two fairly evenly matched teams will square off for the third time this season. And we’re expecting one of the best games of the weekend.
Oddsmakers actually opened this game with the Bengals favored by one point. The public quickly took the Steelers to a field-goal favorite, based likely on the fact the Steelers are the trendy pick to reach the Super Bowl as the sixth seed.
We like that pick, too, but be careful with Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers rank 21st in total defense and have shown at times this season the inability to stop anyone.
That’s not usually a recipe for success in the playoffs. Just look at last year when Pittsburgh’s defense couldn’t get off the field against Baltimore during the Wild Card game. The Ravens beat up on the Steelers and advanced.
With that said, we can’t dismiss the “X” factor. These teams know each other well, so this should be a close game in the fourth quarter. It will likely come down to one possession, and with the offenses being near identical in terms of weaponry, we’re siding with Ben Roethlisberger’s experience over A.J. McCarron.
If this number goes much more than three, we’re siding with the Bengals, but if we’re only giving away three points, we’re taking Big Ben. — Go chalk with Pittsburgh
Seattle at Minnesota (+6)
Thankfully for Vikings fans, this is the NFL, and on a week-to-week basis, things just don’t make any sense.
The Seahawks recently went to Minnesota and left with a 38-7 win. In the NFL, though, that doesn’t mean anything.
Just look at Atlanta vs. Carolina recently. The Panthers smoked the Falcons, only to turn around a few weeks later, to lose. That’s the world of the NFL, so we’re not going to dwell on that earlier season score.
The Vikings will have an edge going into this game. And don’t worry about the primetime failures that plagued Minnesota earlier this season. The Vikings have won three straight games, with two of those coming in primetime.
We understand why the public is backing the Seahawks — experience, talent and a dominating end to the regular season — but this isn’t the same team that has won two consecutive NFC championships.
Both teams employ top defenses and will showcase solid running games. The cold weather will affect the outcome of this game, and there won’t be much scoring in this Wild Card game.
The Vikings will keep this close and it will come down to one possession late in the fourth quarter. — Go against the chalk with Minnesota
Green Bay (Even) at Washington
Washington has been a good story this season. The team had some of the worst odds to make the NFL playoffs in the preseason.
Kirk Cousins has been as hot as any quarterback down the stretch and Jordan Reed became one of the best tight ends toward season’s end.
But there’s something about this game that doesn’t sit right with us. The Packers are going to figure it out at some point…right? We anticipate that to happen in the playoffs.
The Packers have been atrocious lately. But we’re not betting against Aaron Rodgers. He will figure out how to move the ball against a bad Washington defense, ranked 28th in the NFL, and will find a way to pull out a victory.
The Redskins’ defense is not good enough to move on in the playoffs. That will show Sunday afternoon. — Go with Green Bay for the win
