We knew Green Bay would eventually pay us back for the fortunes we received earlier in the season.
We cashed in on Aaron Rodgers’ first Hail Mary this season, taking a game-long beatdown against the spread, and turning it into a winner. Then, Saturday night happened, and Rodgers took us from a push to a bad beat.
That brought our record to under .500 for the day, but we’re still cruising to a decent number overall.
Only two games on the slate this week, so not much room to boost up that record. However, we’re feeling confident in our picks this week, so don’t be bashful at the ticket window.
Last week: 1-2-1 ATS
Season: 48-42-3 ATS
New England (-3.5) at Denver
We know the Broncos have a great pass rush and that secondary is as good as it gets in the NFL.
But we can’t get over how bad that offense will be on Sunday. The media is hailing it as Peyton vs. Brady, but this game has little to do with those previous matchups. Manning isn’t close to the same quarterback he once was, and Brady has been as good as he’s ever been.
To compare those two to what this matchup was in the past is a disservice to Brady’s longevity.
This game is all about New England’s health. At one time this season, many believed the Patriots had a shot at going undefeated.
Then, they lost to the Broncos, and became fairly average.
Did New England all of sudden get worse in the season? No. They got injured.
With a healthier roster in place, the Patriots should be favored by more than 3.5 points.
Yes, the Broncos have a stingy defense. That’s why they led the NFL in total defense and allowed less than 200 yards passing per game against opposing quarterbacks.
Don’t be completely fooled by those numbers, though. In the last seven games of the regular season, the Broncos allowed 241 passing yards per game, including 280 to Brady in week 12. In last week’s playoff matchup against the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger went for 339 passing yards.
That should throw up several red flags to Broncos fans who believe this defense will carry them through to the Super Bowl.
New England will employ several weapons at the Broncos this week and we don’t see the Broncos offense keeping up with New England. Have no fear with the Pats. — Go chalk with New England
Arizona (+3.5) at Carolina
Carolina is really good, so we’re not taking the Cardinals because we believe the Panthers aren’t what their record says they are.
We’re taking the Cardinals because we believe they’re every bit as good as the Panthers…and we’re getting more than a field goal.
Don’t worry about last week. The Cardinals didn’t look good against the Green Bay Packers and Carson Palmer was a mess for the majority of the game. This is the NFL, where you have to throw last week’s result out the window.
Palmer will come back a littler looser this week and should find his groove again. And Arizona still has Larry Fitzgerald, who showed last week that his best days aren’t completely behind him.
Both defenses should dominate the line of scrimmage, so if oddsmakers are going to give us points, we’re going to take them. The Panthers don’t have the specialty players to get off the ball against the stingy secondary in Arizona.
And Carolina should be able to slow down the Cardinals’ running game, forcing Palmer to make throws this week.
Cam Newton is the wild card in this game. Newton is one of the best college football quarterbacks we’ve ever seen and was at his best in games like this. We anticipate him to be really good again, but he can’t do it alone.
Arizona has the better roster in terms of talent. Newton will be great, but the Cardinals will keep it close and could be better. Take the points in this evenly matched game. — Go against the chalk with Arizona
