It’s been less than a week since we detailed the odds for Super Bowl 51 and the action in the last six days is favoring the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos, fresh off a Super Bowl 50 win, opened as +1400 to win next season’s Super Bowl, far off the pace from the odds-on favorite, New England Patriots. Now, though, the Broncos are moving up the chart, going from owning the sixth-best odds to being just behind the Patriots at +900.
Oddsmakers still like New England at +750, which is slightly less than the opening lines. But the Broncos are closing the gap, much like Pittsburgh, which also is going off at +900. The Steelers were +1000 a week ago.
It appears that bettors loved the value of the Broncos, which oddsmakers originally put little faith in to repeat their performance from 2016. We still don’t like Denver’s chances, but it’s hard to argue with bettors who put early money on Denver.
The quarterback position will likely be more consistent and we don’t see much of a drop-off on the defensive side of the ball. However, AFC teams were decimated by injuries in 2015, allowing the Broncos to look largely unimpressive en route to a No. 1 seed.
Bettors likely had the same inclination on the Steelers that we did. Pittsburgh will be at full strength in 2016 and that will be deadly for AFC teams. The offense is a top-three unit in the NFL and that defense will be another year older and should be better next season.
Carolina, Seattle and Green Bay are the top NFC teams at +1000. The Seahawks and Packers are unchanged from a week ago, while bettors lifted the Panthers up from +1100.
Dallas and Arizona experienced a drop in confidence in the past week. The Cowboys are still the highest-rated team that didn’t make the playoffs in 2015 at +1600. Dallas was +1400 last week, while Arizona dropped from +1600 to +1800.
We’re staying away from the Cardinals next year, based on the offense not likely to repeat its performance from 2015 and the defense struggling at times in 2015. The Cowboys are an interesting case and do provide solid value. However, it’s a risky bet, considering there’s no guarantee that Tony Romo can stay healthy.
Cleveland is still anchoring the bottom of the list at +15000. Tennessee is attempting to make up ground, going from +6600 to +10000. Miami, Jacksonville and Oakland are still at +6600.
We’re not wasting money or time on the Browns or Titans for next year, but if we had some extra cash to blow, the Raiders would be a solid long-shot bet. Oakland is young with a potentially dynamic offense. The Raiders can get after the quarterback at times, too, which was just shown in the Super Bowl as being the main reason why the Broncos’ defense was unstoppable.
Our best long-shot bet is Oakland, while our best value pick is Cincinnati at +2500. The Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL for spurts this past season. Without Andy Dalton, though, the Bengals were unable to advance in the playoffs again. Cincinnati gives us pretty much a guarantee that it will be in the playoffs and this year may be different than years past.
Our best bet is Pittsburgh at +900. We love that offense and that defense will be better next year. As long as Pittsburgh stays healthy, it will be a favorite in several weeks.
