In the NFL, spreads of a touchdown or more usually signal a high probability for the underdog to cover.
But that’s not the case with the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots.
This season, the two teams are a combined 8-1 against the spread, and unlike other teams with top records against the spread, the Packers and Patriots are beating the odds despite the big spreads.
The Packers are winning games by 11.2 points per game, while covering the spread by an average of 5.2 points per game. The Patriots are winning by 18.2 points per game, the second-biggest margin of victory behind only the Arizona Cardinals.
New England is beating the spread by 11.2 points per game, once again the second-best mark in the NFL, behind only the Cardinals.
What’s impressive is that both teams faced small spreads only once this season — week 2. The Packers were 3.5-point favorites against Seattle, while the Patriots were two-point favorites at Buffalo. Other than that, the teams have been at least 6.5-point favorites in every other game this season.
This week, the two teams will once again see big spreads. The Patriots have opened as seven-point favorites at Indianapolis, while the Packers are 9.5-point favorites at home against San Diego.
Atlanta, Jets forgetting about last year
Oddsmakers have yet to adjust to the newfound successes of the New York Jets and the Atlanta Falcons.
This season, the two teams are a combined 7-1 against the spread, which is a far cry from how they ended up last year.
In 2014, the teams combined for a 13-18-1 record against the spread and actually recorded negative numbers in relation to margin of victory and to the spread. This season, the Jets are plus-10 in margin of victory and plus-9.2 against the spread per game.
The Falcons are undefeated straight up and also are winning games by 10 points per game, while beating the spread by almost nine points per game.
Bettors are likely having a difficult time adjusting to the Falcons as a quality team against the spread. Atlanta has been under .500 against the spread every year but one since 2011. In the year it was over .500, the Falcons were only one game over .500.
Oddsmakers may make an adjustment with both of these teams, but if they don’t, they may continue to impress against the spread.
