The NFL isn’t anything like college football. That’s why Survivor pools are so popular and so difficult to win.
Week 1 proved that fact once again when Seattle, which entered the game as more than a touchdown favorite, squeaked out a victory against Miami. The most lopsided matchup of week 1 was far from a blowout. Expect more of that as the season continues.
The first two weeks are difficult to assess, with week 2 especially being one of the most difficult weeks for Survivor pool players. Far too often we overreact to week 1 and then fall flat on our face in week 2 after we’re shown once again the NFL doesn’t necessarily always make sense on a week-to-week basis.
We survived week 1. Here’s to hoping the week 2 Survivor pool finishes with the same result.
Best Bet
Carolina Panthers
Carolina lost in week 1. So what? The Panthers were the better team for the majority of their week 1 matchup at Denver.
This is a no-brainer for week 2. There are a lot of tricky matchups that I want nothing to do with. Carolina is entering the game as almost two-touchdown favorites, so pretty much all Survivor pool contestants will back the Panthers this week.
I’m all in on safe-enough teams in the first few weeks. We don’t know which teams will actually turn out to be top-tier teams this season. That’s why teams with quality track records are the best bets.
But this isn’t all about Carolina. San Francisco isn’t very good, and it happens to be traveling cross-country for an early afternoon kickoff after playing Monday night. That’s a recipe for disaster for any team. It’s especially problematic for a team without a quality offense squaring off against a team ready to erase the bad taste of week 1 out of their mouths.
We’ve already seen this song and dance from last season. San Francisco opened with a less-than-exciting Monday night blowout against Minnesota in 2015. It turned around the next week for a cross-country trip for an early afternoon game against Pittsburgh.
The result? The Steelers won 43-18. History will repeat itself this weekend.
Sleeper pick
Chicago Bears
There won’t be many opportunities to pick the Bears. That’s why Monday night might be the best time to back the Bears.
Chicago competed for the most part against Houston on Sunday. That offensive line needs a little work, but the Texans have an elite defensive line, so I’m not completely dismissing Chicago’s ability to move the ball against weaker defenses.
This is a great opportunity to pick a spot where many in the general public will overvalue the week 1 results. The Bears aren’t near as bad as they appeared in the second half of Sunday’s loss to Houston and Philadelphia defnitely isn’t as good as it appeared in Sunday’s win against the Browns.
Carson Wentz sliced through Cleveland’s swiss cheese defense. The running game played its part and the defense bended a bit, but pulled through against the Browns’ inability to move the ball in the red zone.
So naturally, the Eagles won’t be able to keep up in week 2 against Chicago. The Bears made running back Lamar Miller work for every yard last week and was competent against the pass for a half. With a week’s worth of tape on Wentz, the Bears defense will put up a much bigger fight than Cleveland, and will help the Bears earn a Monday night victory.
Be Careful
Detroit Lions
See the above explanation for why I’m selling the Lions.
Detroit is heading into Sunday’s game against Tennessee as 5.5-point favorites. I’m throwing up a major red flag. If this game was played in week 1, that spread would likely be a field goal or less. Everyone was all over the Titans being better, while dismissing Detroit’s ability to compete in the NFC North before week 1.
After one week, the Titans might not win a game this season, while Detroit is now a contender for a Super Bowl title. This is exactly why people lose money betting on the NFL.
Don’t overreact to week 1. The Lions have no defense and I can guarantee the Titans’ defense is better than Indianapolis’. Tennessee will slow down the game and Marcus Mariota will have far more spaces to throw this week against an inferior secondary.
Detroit and Baltimore will likely garner the second-most picks in this week’s Survivor pool. Be careful with backing the Lions. They’ve proven in the past to not be reliable on a week-to-week basis.
