With the NFL season finished, we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re eyeing five wide receivers who finished 11th through 15th in fantasy points in 2015.
11. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona, 171.50 points
Hype train: Hop off
We were wrong, but also right about Fitzgerald in 2015.
Going into the season, we weren’t buying into the aging Arizona wide receiver. He proceeded to go for more than 20 fantasy points in two of the first three games and registered less than seven points only once in the season’s first eight weeks.
However, we still weren’t buying Fitzgerald, even when the Cardinals entered their bye week in week 9. Like other receivers who are up there in age, the last half of the season can produce far less results. And that happened with Fitzgerald.
From weeks 11 to 17, he registered double-digits once (in week 17, traditionally a week not played in fantasy football), and went for less than seven points four times.
He’s Carson Palmer’s favorite target and showed in the playoffs he still has that top-tier wide receiver ability. However, we’re concerned with Palmer having a repeat performance in 2016 and we don’t see Fitzgerald getting as many looks as he did this past season.
He’s not a WR1, so don’t reach for him in next year’s fantasy football draft.
12. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans, 169.60 points
Hype train: All Aboard
He’ll frustrate you at times. That’s evident with his six single-digit performances in the first seven weeks in 2015.
But he’ll produce at a high clip at times, too. That’s evident with his seven double-digit performances in 2015.
New Orleans just isn’t’ the same offense as it used to be. Drew Brees isn’t the same quarterback and the Saints look more toward the run than the pass on some occasions.
Fantasy owners are starting to figure out that new mentality, allowing Cooks’ value to not skyrocket. That’s good for 2016, because Cooks should have another season where he finishes near or in the top-10 among wide receivers.
He’s Brees’ top option, and once the offense got rolling a little better toward the end of the season, he notched eight touchdowns in the team’s final nine games.
His strong finish shows that he can produce in big ways for fantasy owners in 2016.
13. Demaryius Thomas, Denver, 162.40 points
Hype train: Just right
The curious case of Thomas was a consistent storyline in 2015. Sure, Peyton Manning wasn’t his normal self, reducing Thomas’ role in the offense.
But he still should have done more as the No. 1 option. Just look at DeAndre Hopkins for how a true No. 1 receiver can flourish with floundering quarterback play.
He will be a wild card entering next season, especially with the uncertainty of the quarterback position in Denver. On one hand, he still turned in eight double-digit performances in 2015. On the other hand, he looked awful in the playoffs.
As long as his value depreciates, which we believe it will, he should be valued about right as a WR2 for next year’s draft. He’s still the No. 1 option, and we’ve seen him put up big numbers before. That’s enough for us to keep him on our radar.
14. Allen Hurns, Jacksonville, 161.10 points
Hype train: Hop off
We’re not big fans of taking the second-best receiver on a team as your second-best receiver on your fantasy football roster, especially if it’s in the early rounds.
If you can pick up Hurns later in the draft, then he should be a solid pick. We doubt that will happen though, since his potential is high, and production was really good in 2015.
He garnered double-digit fantasy points in eight games, despite missing a game and working through an injury later in the season. He topped 100 yards five times, but was touchdown-dependent, which makes us nervous entering 2016.
He scored 10 touchdowns, with seven of those happening in consecutive games. We can’t count on him scoring that much next year. We also can’t count on Jacksonville’s defense being that bad next year, either.
With an improved defense, the Jaguars likely won’t air it out as much, making Hurns’ value artificially inflated.
15. Jarvis Landry, Miami, 159.80 points
Hype train: Just right
We’d hop off, but with Landry being Ryan Tannehill’s obvious No. 1, we’ll put him down as a mid-tier WR2 option.
There’s plenty of weapons in Miami, so that gives us pause on Landry. With a new coaching staff, those weapons may be utilized more, meaning Landry will fall back a bit in the hierarchy of targets.
Nevertheless, though, he still managed solid point totals while being held out of the endzone on many occasions. He tallied only four touchdowns and was targeted 165 times.
We don’t expect that many targets next season, but if he can even get close to that number, we’d be satisfied with his spot as a consistent scorer for fantasy teams. He’s not going to be a deep threat, but he has tremendous value in PPR leagues, because he runs those short-to-intermediate routes as well as anybody.
We doubt anyone will reach for Landry, so he should be valued just right as a good WR2 for your fantasy team next season.
