For many, week 8 was likely the end of the road in the Survivor pool. It was a tough week with several byes and close spreads, allowing Minnesota to be a popular pick against the Bears.
That didn’t turn out so well.
There’s still options for people looking for one-loss Survivor pools and week 9 presents several more options than week 8 did. Six of the 13 games feature spreads of five or more points.
Here’s the best offerings for the week 9 Survivor pool in the NFL.
Teams Used: Seattle, Carolina, Miami, Washington, Baltimore (lost), New England, Green Bay and Denver.
Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings
Let the overreactions commence.
When it comes to the NFL, always buy the stock of a team when the majority of fans are selling. The Vikings were a hot Super Bowl prediction only two weeks ago.
Then the Vikings had a bye and suddenly lost their ability to move the ball. Oh and their defense also is being scrutinized.
So naturally, the public is wondering what’s wrong with Minnesota. It’s pretty easy to see. Injuries have finally caught up to the offense and it’s tough for NFL teams to play at a high level each week, especially during back-to-back road games.
I’m not sweating these recent problems for the Vikings, especially with a home date in week 9 against Detroit. The Vikings have been more than competent at home, defeating Green Bay, the New York Giants and Houston by a combined 35 points.
It’s not just the home-field advantage that has me willing to put my Survivor pool life on the line with the Vikings. Minnesota is a top-five passing defense, something that is necessary to defeat Detroit.
The Lions have faced two top-10 pass defenses on the road this season. Both of those games featured 14 or fewer points by Detroit and ended in losses. Detroit needs to pass the ball to succeed. Minnesota won’t allow that to happen.
What also helps is that Detroit is one of the worst defenses in the NFL and allows a QBR of more than 110, the worst mark in the NFL.
Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford needs all the help he can get. Thankfully for him, the Lions will be on the other side in week 9.
Sleeper Pick
Kansas City Chiefs
It’s not much of a sleeper pick, but the Chiefs offer solid value in week 9.
Kansas City actually owns the highest point spread in week 9 at nine points over Jacksonville. Much of the reason is that the Jaguars have basically given up for the season, despite having enough talent that it should be able to compete on a weekly basis.
No matter what the talent level is for Jacksonville, Kansas City is one of the better teams in the AFC and is on its regular run through the middle part of the season. The Chiefs are solid in all phases of the game and should slow down a Jaguars offense that ranks toward the bottom of the NFL.
Kansas City owns a defense that ranks in the top-half of the NFL in total defense and is even better against the pass. The Jaguars put up plenty of passing yards in week 8 against an injured Tennessee secondary, but that was fool’s gold. Most of those yards came in garbage time, a Blake Bortles specialty.
Many people will take the Chiefs as their top pick based on them being an unlikely pick later in the season. I get that strategy, but I still do fear this pick a little. I don’t completely trust Kansas City yet and Jacksonville does have talent. That talent gave up on head coach Gus Bradley in week 8, but some coaching changes occurred during the last week, which may provide a spark for the Jaguars.
Kansas City is likely safe. I just trust the Vikings more than the Chiefs thanks to less unknowns.
Be Careful
San Diego Chargers
Oddsmakers are giving San Diego the benefit of the doubt in week 9, putting it at 5.5-point favorites at home against Tennessee.
Maybe they have less faith in Tennessee than I do.
San Diego is coming off of two brutal road games in consecutive weeks. Injuries are still hampering the Chargers and they haven’t historically been a great favorite. Since 2014, San Diego has covered in only 35 percent of games as a favorite. The Chargers are much better in the underdog role.
And in this game against the Titans, that will matter. Tennessee has been a decent underdog this season and is coming off a major victory in week 8 against Jacksonville. The Titans are now competing for an AFC South title and believe it can compete with these types of teams.
The Titans also do something very well that should disrupt the Chargers. Tennessee ranks third in the NFL in sacks for the season with 22. The Chargers, meanwhile, have allowed the fifth-most sacks this season.
That will slow down San Diego’s offense and this game will be much closer than experts believe. Tennessee should be getting more credit than what the public is giving them. Don’t try to pull a fast one with San Diego.
