Having a draft plan is the key to winning your fantasy football league. Without it, there are too many surprises during a fast-paced draft, forcing you to make bigger mistakes.
With that plan, you have to have a strategy based on where you are picking, which is likely determined on the day of your draft. That means, you have to strategize for early, middle and late first round picks, and plan accordingly based on that number.
With that in mind, here’s a cheat sheet for how I’m drafting in the first 10 rounds if I have a top-four pick.
First Round
My first pick is Todd Gurley, regardless of where I land in the top-four. His average draft position is third overall, behind wide receivers Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr., and one ahead of Julio Jones.
Those three receivers are as consistent as they come, but Gurley gives me the best presence as a running back. He was a machine last season and is an every-down back that has proven to be able to catch the ball out of the backfield. St. Louis doesn’t have any weapons on offense, so he’s the lone wolf.
As long as he can stay healthy, he will be the best pick in this situation. Since I’m a sucker for running backs, if Gurley isn’t available and I’m at the No. 4 position, I would take Adrian Peterson as a player who I don’t have as much confidence in, but can get the job done.
Second Round
In a typical 12-team draft, this would be picks 21 through 24. According to ADPs, this would put me in line for Alshon Jeffery, Cam Newton, Mark Ingram or Mike Evans.
If it holds true, I would just miss out on Eddie Lacy in this position, which would be my pick if he’s still on the board. But let’s assume he’s off the board. In this range, I’m targeting a running back again, so I’m banking on Mark Ingram. He could falter a bit from last season, but Drew Brees is on his last leg in New Orleans, meaning this team must run the ball more. With Ingram, I get a solid RB2, who showed flashes of catching the ball out of the backfield last season.
With Ingram and Gurley in my backfield, I don’t believe any other fantasy team could compete with those compliment of backs.
Third Round
Now, it gets a bit trickier and I have to focus on the wide receiver position. These picks would be 25 through 28, so the crop of receivers isn’t near as good as toward the top of the draft. According to ADP, that puts me in line for Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks and Keenan Allen in this group, and some receivers down the board.
I love Kelvin Benjamin down the board at 35th overall, but I’m not going to reach. In this case, I actually like Cooper to make a major impact for the Raiders in an offense that is improving. He can be a good WR1 and may surprise some experts in his second season. He has bigger upside than Cooks, Allen or Benjamin.
Fourth Round
Now I must make a decision with picks 45 through 48. Draft a really good tight end or quarterback or keep focusing on my receivers. According to ADP, I just miss out on tight end Greg Olsen at 44, but I have DeMarco Murray, Jarvis Landry, Doug Baldwin and Jeremy Hill available in these spots. I might get greedy, too, with a flex running back with Jonathan Stewart if he’s still on the board.
At this point, though, I’m skipping the above-average quarterback and tight end, and staying true to the wide receivers. I have some levity here, and without Calvin Johnson to hog all the balls in Detroit, Golden Tate should have a better season production-wise. He’s available at 51 ADP which puts him right in line with this pick.
Fifth Round
I have two running backs and two wide receivers, so now it’s time to either nab a difference-making tight end or finish my starting running back stable. These are picks 49 through 53. Ben Roethlisberger is still on the board, but I’m waiting on the quarterback position.
It depends who is still on the board, but at this position, if I can draft Murray, then I’m all in with him as a flex option. I believe I’ll still have an opportunity at drafting a solid tight end a little later, so I’m focusing on the running back position. For me, and this may be a reach, I’m backing Ryan Mathews as a surprise productive running back. He doesn’t stay healthy often, but he’s the featured back on an offense that will focus on the running game. As a Flex option, I can take a bit of a risk and not lose much in value as the draft progresses.
Sixth Round
Now, I’m finally going to have to make the decision on finishing my wide receivers, drafting a quarterback or finding a tight end with picks 69 through 72.
According to ADP, players like Melvin Gordon, Donte Moncrief, Blake Bortles and John Brown are available. At this level, though, I’m out of the market for a difference-making tight end, so I’m holding off on that position, and if I can get Moncrief at this position, I’m drafting him. For the most part, that’s what these drafts are about. It’s not always about who you target beforehand. It’s about who’s available.
Moncrief showed he can produce last season and as my No. 3 receiver, he will put up good numbers.
Seventh Round
These are picks 73 through 76, so that means I won’t get another crack at a quarterback until the mid-90s. I can’t take any other chances at missing a quarterback, so I’m eyeing either Eli Manning, Tom Brady or Tony Romo at this juncture.
If Brady is still there, I’m going with Brady, despite the four-game suspension. This is all about having the best team late in the season and Brady has shown consistently the ability to be there in the end. If he’s not there, I’m booking Manning, with the caveat that I can still think about Romo in a later round.
Eighth Round
We’re nearing the 100-pick mark, with picks 93 through 96. I’m in a good position to draft a tight end possibly here, with Zach Ertz, who I like to have a solid season out of Philadelphia or Julius Thomas out of Jacksonville, who I also believe can be a solid pick in this position.
If Thomas is still alive in this range, I’m going with the big-bodied tight end to be the major red-zone threat for quarterback Blake Bortles. He has shown before to be a touchdown magnet and the Jaguars are showing improvement on offense.
Ninth Round
So my starters at key positions are in place, but with Brady missing the first four games, I either need a solid backup with picks 97 through 100, or find depth at the receiver/running back position.
According to ADP, this range features Thomas (who I already drafted), Derrick Henry, the Denver defense and Romo. But just outside this number is Minnesota receiver Stefon Diggs, giving me more depth at that position and filling in as a starter just in case my other picks don’t turn out so well.
Diggs is the No. 1 option for a team poised to pass more this season with an aging Peterson. He can make big leaps this season in his second year, so I get great value with this pick, making me hold off on that backup quarterback for another pick.
10th Round
The final pick of this exercise puts us between picks 117 to 120. The talent pool is small in this range, but there’s still some players to find. I love Dorial Green-Beckham in this position, along with Tevin Coleman. Since I already picked up Diggs in the ninth round, I’ll focus on Coleman as a stash player in case Devonta Freeman gets injured.
Freeman isn’t the most talented back in the NFL, but still produced at a high level last season. If Coleman sees the field, I can expect the same production.
Bonus
Since this is a snake pick, I’ll give my next pick, from picks 121 to 124. I have to pick a backup for quarterback in this position, so that leaves me with Andy Dalton, Tyrod Tayler, Jameis Winston or Matthew Stafford. For those first four games, I’ll back Stafford, based on his opponents. The Lions face Indianapolis, Tennessee, Green Bay and Chicago in the first four weeks, a much easier task than Winston, who squares off against Arizona, St. Louis, Atlanta and Denver.
