2015 will likely be remembered as the year of the fantasy running back bust.
If you chose a running back in the first round, odds are that player didn’t help your roster too much.
Of the top-10 preseason running backs, according to Fantasy Pros, we could make the argument only one of them was worth the value — Adrian Peterson.
Peterson finished second in fantasy scoring this season with 230.70 points. His second-place showing was 31 more points than third-place running back Doug Martin.
For the most part, Peterson was a bastion of consistency, going for 12 double-digit performances in 16 games. He was listed as the consensus No. 1 player in preseason fantasy football drafts and he was the right pick, based on the other players that had ADPs in the first round.
Here are other running backs who had great, good and bad value at the running back position.
Best value
Devonta Freeman
The Atlanta Falcons running back wasn’t even slated to start in the preseason, so his ranking and average draft position didn’t come close to matching his output.
Freeman led all running backs in points with 243.30. That’s not bad considering his preseason ranking was 103 overall, with an ADP of 110, putting him in the 10th round.
Among running backs, he was the 36th ranked running back, three spots behind Tevin Coleman, who was supposed to man most of the carries.
Freeman didn’t earn a starting nod until week 3 after Coleman got injured. He quickly made the most of his newfound role, with games of 37, 32, 25 and 27 fantasy points in four consecutive outings.
He wasn’t that great after those games, but he was still putting up quality numbers, despite missing a game due to injury. He finished the season with four of five performances in double-digits.
His ADP and ranking will rise next season, but it will be interesting to see if fantasy football owners look at his late season numbers as a possible indication of his future production, which would lower his value.
Worst value
Injured running backs
We’ll just lump all those top picks into one category.
Le’Veon Bell was the second-ranked running back coming into the season. He missed the first two games, dominated for a few weeks, and then was injured again. Jamaal Charles lasted even less, despite his No. 4 ranking in the preseason.
He lasted only the first five weeks before getting hit by the injury bug.
Marshawn Lynch’s ADP was No. 5, but he missed nine games. And the seven games he did play in didn’t feature big points, with three of those seven games with single digit fantasy points.
We’ll even add Justin Forsett to this group as his ADP was 22nd, putting him late in the second round in 12-team drafts. Forsett missed every game since week 12 and wasn’t as productive as he’s been in the past.
These running backs are a reason why so many fantasy football owners will skip the early running back next year in the draft.
Good value
Doug Martin
Martin’s short career has been an interesting journey. He was once all the rage because of his breakout rookie season.
Then he went on a two-season sabbatical, dropped his value to the bargain basement in the preseason for fantasy football. Now, he’s back toward the top of the fantasy running back lists after finishing third among running backs in total points this season.
Martin registered 199.30 points this season, eight points better than fourth place. What’s most remarkable about that output was that Martin wasn’t touchdown-dependent. He registered only seven total touchdowns on the season while amassing 1,402 yards, the second most of any running back in the NFL.
Had he reached the end zone a few more times, we may be talking about Martin as the best running back in 2015. Before the season, though, we weren’t thinking about Martin in that category.
He was ranked 23rd among running backs and registered an ADP of 72, despite an overall ranking of 48. The fantasy experts were siding with Martin much more than the general public. He was a steal in drafts based on his ADP and will be a curious case next season, since he’s had two good and two bad seasons.
Bad value
Eddie Lacy
Had you drafted teammate James Starks and started him each week instead of Lacy, you would have actually generated more fantasy points.
Lacy had one of the most confusing years in recent memory. He only missed one game, but his output was only 120.60 points.
He reached more than 100 total yards in four games. Then there were head scratchers, where he failed to register even more than 20 total yards. He couldn’t be trusted and there wasn’t many concrete explanations as to why.
There were some nagging injury problems listed and a possible weight issue, but by the end of the season, he likely was a tough play considering his inconsistencies.
That’s bad luck for any owner who spent an early draft pick on Lacy. He was listed as the No. 2 overall player, according to Fantasy Pros, which aggregates a consensus ranking among experts, and his ADP was three.
His value will drop next season, but depending on where you can nab him, he may pay major dividends.
Good value
David Johnson
The 43rd ranked running back coming into the season, Johnson finished with 173.80 fantasy points, good enough to be ranked seventh among running backs in 2015.
Johnson’s ADP was 157, 29 points lower than his overall ranking of 128. In many leagues he wasn’t drafted, making him a popular waiver wire pickup at the beginning of the season.
The biggest issue with Johnson in the early going was his touchdown dependency. He wasn’t getting many touches, but he was scoring touchdowns in limited action. That became a quandary for fantasy football owners, who couldn’t rely on a lot of looks, making it difficult to judge his performance.
By week 7, he was likely dropped in many leagues, as he went on a single-digit run of scoring from week 6 to 13. With injuries in Arizona’s backfield, though, Johnson got his chance at St. Louis in week 13, and started a string of four consecutive double-digit performances, with a 40.90 effort against Philadelphia in week 15.
His value will skyrocket next season, especially if the Cardinals move on from Chris Johnson.
Bad value
C.J. Anderson
Anderson is another player who fantasy football owners would have been better off taking his teammate.
Denver running back Ronnie Hillman finished with 21 more fantasy points than Anderson, who was predicted to have a stellar season before the season began.
However, his slow start gave pause to any fantasy football owners who wasted a top-10 pick on Anderson, as he didn’t record his first double-digit performance until week 8. Anderson was the No. 6 running back with an ADP of 10th overall.
He ended the season on a high note with back-to-back double-digit performances, but those were too little too late for fantasy owners. He registered only four double-digit performances, with three of those failing to register more than 17 points. He only missed one full game, making his output one of the most disappointing this season.
His value will be much less next year, but with Denver committing more to the run with a better offensive line, he may still earn a higher ADP based on potential.
Good value
DeAngelo Williams
You have to search pretty hard for Williams’ name in the preseason running backs list.
He was the 61st overall ranked running back with an ADP of 132. That was actually much better than his ranking, which put him at 191st overall.
Many fantasy owners were attempting a slick move to pick up Williams, who earned two early starts based on Bell’s absence. He was extremely productive in those first two games, before predictably falling off when Bell returned.
He was likely dumped to the waiver wire in many leagues, until after week 8, when Bell got injured and Williams turned in another double-digit performance. In games where he started, Williams was the most productive running back in fantasy football, with eight double-digit performances in 10 starts.
His value is difficult to predict next season with Bell returning. His case, though, should be a cautionary tale for fantasy owners dumping players to the waiver wire for marginal options. Had most of those owners kept Williams through the tough times, just in case, they would have likely had their seasons end on a higher note.
Bad value
Alfred Morris
Many experts had already jumped off the Morris bandwagon, but there he was in the preseason, still ranked No. 16 among running backs with an overall ADP of 36.
He was only one slot behind Latavius Murray and one spot ahead of Emmanuel Sanders. Both of those picks, and many others behind him, would have been much better options.
Morris failed to reach 100 points in fantasy, registering only 86.60 for the season. He recorded only one touchdown and reached 100 yards rushing twice — in the first and last games of the regular season.
The Redskins employed a three running-back approach for the majority of the season, limiting Morris’ carries. He doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield, as he registered only 55 yards receiving this season. He also averaged a career-low 3.7 yards per carry this season.
He finished strong, with two of his last three performances featuring 84 or more yards rushing. However, we doubt he has much of a future in Washington, so he will likely drop considerably next season in fantasy football.
