I’ve been making a habit of picking against the Cleveland Browns in the Survivor pool. That’s not an earth-shattering strategy and has played well in the past for many in these pools.
And while this week seems like another perfect opportunity to back the strategy, I’m going in another direction. I hate backing teams that I don’t know what to expect. Sure, Tom Brady is back, but what should we expect? I know that Brady is mad and should be out for blood.
But he hasn’t been allowed to practice and even though Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, I have some doubts that everything will be in sync. And even though the Browns haven’t won a game, it hasn’t been because they’ve given up.
Cleveland should have beaten Miami and had week 4 within its grasp against Washington before turnovers started piling up in the second half.
Almost everyone will pick the Patriots. I’ll save them for later. Here’s my week 5 Survivor pool pick.
Already Used: Seattle, Carolina, Miami and Washington
Best Bet
Baltimore Ravens
Many of you will just dismiss this pick and go with the Patriots. That’s OK. But I have a hunch this could be a blowout and it gets rid of the Ravens in the Survivor pool.
Baltimore lost last week, but we found out a lot about the Ravens that we didn’t know in the first three weeks. A running game finally emerged. And a top wide receiver became clear. The defense is nasty and while Derek Carr threw a handful of touchdowns, yards didn’t come that easy for a Raiders offense among the best in the NFL.
Baltimore owns the best total defense in the NFL, limiting opponents to 256 yards per game. The Ravens allow 4.6 yards per play, while their counterpart in week 5, the Washington Redskins, allow the second-highest yards per play in the NFL at 6.3.
We don’t generally talk about Washington’s defense being among the worst in the NFL. But maybe we should.
The Redskins rank in the bottom-five in total yards among defenses in the NFL. They are now likely without their best defensive weapon Ryan Kerrigan, and have other injuries that have bit them in recent weeks.
A week 4 loss to Oakland shouldn’t be held against Baltimore in week 5. The Raiders are good and were able to score late to defeat Baltimore. The Redskins weren’t as impressive as I had anticipated in week 4 against the Browns. I’m backing Baltimore in my Survivor pool.
Sleeper Pick
Minnesota Vikings
Pretty much everyone will pick New England or Pittsburgh this week in the Survivor pool. I already gave one Sleeper pick, so here’s another one.
If not considered the top pick out of the NFC, Minnesota should be considered in the top-two. Sam Bradford has moved that offense to new heights. The defense is the best in the NFL. And that home-field advantage is a serious detriment to any road team.
And even after a short week, I’m still believing in Minnesota against Houston. The Texans haven’t been the same team on the road for pretty much since they came into existence. The numbers have gotten better in the last few years, but those records were still 4-4 in each of the last two seasons, with the majority of those wins against lesser competition, like Jacksonville and Tennessee.
The Texans don’t play well on the road against better teams. And Minnesota is better. The Vikings shouldn’t have too many problems coming back from Monday night’s victory against the New York Giants.
Be Careful
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh looked like the team to beat in the AFC last week. But the week before, it looked like the team prepped to receive the No. 1 draft pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
The week 3 loss to Philadelphia likely was just the right place at the right time for the Eagles, with the Steelers coming back from a Monday night victory in week 1 against Washington and a rivalry win in week 2 against Cincinnati. But that still raised some questions about Pittsburgh’s consistency.
And what has me still worried is that defense. It looked great on Sunday night against Kansas City, but we’ve seen the Chiefs do this kind of thing in the past. Kansas City gets down big early and then can’t dig out of a hole because the offense relies on the running and short passing game so much. The Chiefs can come back against teams like San Diego, but can’t do that against the NFL’s elite.
But the Steelers’ defense is still ailing with injuries. Even though Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine recently, he’s still moving the ball at times. If he can clean that up this week, the Steelers could be vulnerable for another letdown. Be careful with Pittsburgh.
